54 Elk Creek Rd

Kellogg, ID 83837

$174,900C-

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,197 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,489/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax + insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $28/mo
• Annual: $339/yr
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.32%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $48,972

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($339/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (14.9% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $149k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#162 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kellogg Joint District (rural): math 28% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #66 of 92 in ID (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Shoshone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shoshone County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.2% in Kellogg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.