54 Elk Creek Rd · Kellogg, ID 83837

$174,900

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,197 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1940 3,920 sqft lot Est $175k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large open floor plan with lots of storage. Open and covered patio, large carport with workshop. Greenhouse in backyard. Located between 2 ski resorts with easy I-90 access.

Key facts

• Covered patio areas
• Attached carport
• Workshop area

Tags

• FENCED-IN YARD
• OPEN PATIO AREAS
• COVERED PATIO AREAS
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• WORKSHOP AREA
• CLOSE TO SKI RESORTS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable TV available
• Home design: Site-built home on under 2 acres; Irregular lot
• Construction: Wood siding and T1-11 exterior (frame construction); Metal roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Covered patio and patio; Outdoor lighting; Rain gutters; Lawn; Full fencing; Southern exposure; View available

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet; LVP
• Bathrooms: 2 main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air furnace; Natural gas and electric heating
• Interior features: Cable internet available; DSL available; High-speed internet; Satellite service; Skylight(s); Washer hookup; Satellite dish
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($339/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.2% in Kellogg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#162 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kellogg Joint District (rural): math 28% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #66 of 92 in ID (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Shoshone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Shoshone County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,899 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.32%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,762
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
54 Elk Creek Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,197 (0%)	0mo	$174,900	$146	95

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $97,039
• Equity at exit: $157,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.81×
• Total profit: $284,321
• Equity at exit: $339,792

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83837

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,489 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,098/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,453

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $174,900 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $174,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $174,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-05-22
   listed $174,900 Active
5. 2020-11-20
   soldstatus
6. 2020-11-13
   status Pending 173-char remark

   Show marketing remark (173 chars)

   Large open floor plan with lots of storage. Open and covered patio, large carport with workshop. Greenhouse in backyard. Located between 2 ski resorts with easy I-90 access.

7. 2020-10-12
   historical Active - Backup Offers Accepted 173-char remark

   Show marketing remark (173 chars)

   Large open floor plan with lots of storage. Open and covered patio, large carport with workshop. Greenhouse in backyard. Located between 2 ski resorts with easy I-90 access.

8. 2020-09-08
   listed $111,900 Active 173-char remark

   Show marketing remark (173 chars)

   Large open floor plan with lots of storage. Open and covered patio, large carport with workshop. Greenhouse in backyard. Located between 2 ski resorts with easy I-90 access.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ID · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,207 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$108/yr (+$9/mo · 9.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 9 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,098
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,429
• − Management: −$1,429
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$2,646
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$635
• After-tax cash flow: $974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kellogg Joint District
• NCES district ID: 1601650
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,044
• Composite: 33.67/100
• National rank: #5389
• State rank: #66 of 92 in ID

Livability — Kellogg

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #15420

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,258

Population outlook (Shoshone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,864 people
• By 2030: 11,416 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 10,462 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 9,693 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 8,438 · -28.9%
• By 2100: 7,028 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shoshone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.4) · D 24.0% · R 73.4% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.8pp toward R · 2008: -7.6pp · 2024: -49.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.4 2020: R+41.7 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+8.2 2008: R+7.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.41%
• Current HPI: 679.28
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

+56.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $174,900 CDAMLS
• 2020-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-11-13 Pending — CDAMLS
• 2020-10-12 Contingent — CDAMLS
• 2020-09-08 Listed $111,900 CDAMLS

Property tax history

+35.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,098 · +63.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.