1024 NW 9th St

Tulia, TX 79088

$110,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $963/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $-21/mo
• Annual: $-246/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-246/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (12.5% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,297 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tulia ISD (town): math 22% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #768 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tulia El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 408 students, 82% FRL); Tulia J H (math 28% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 206 students, 82% FRL); Tulia H S (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 282 students, 80% FRL).
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP.
• Swisher County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.