2457 Clay Creek Ln

Fort Worth, TX 76177

$339,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,772 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Pending · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,446/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax + insurance: −$718
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-605/mo
• Annual: $-7,264/yr
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.65%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $94,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-605 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (27.9% below list).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $232k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 118 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?