2457 Clay Creek Ln · Fort Worth, TX 76177

$339,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,772 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 2018 5,489 sqft lot $191/sqft · 8% below area Est $369k · 8% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new home in Oak Creek Trails! Inside, you’ll find a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath layout designed for everyday living. The cozy fireplace creates a warm focal point in the living room, making it the perfect spot to gather with family and friends. The property includes the stainless steel refrigerator, washer and dryer, adding convenience for move-in ready. The roof was replaced in 2025 with wind resistant shingles, and gutters installed. Nestled in a beautiful community surrounded by the Golf Club at Champions Circle, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, charm, and lifestyle. Residents enjoy access to the HOA clubhouse, sparkling pool, and scenic walking trails — ideal for relaxing evenings and active mornings. With inviting spaces, thoughtful features, and a sought-after community setting, this home truly checks all the boxes. Come see why life in Oak Creek Trails feels so good!

Key facts

• Hoa clubhouse
• Cozy fireplace
• 5,489 sq ft lot

Tags

• COZY FIREPLACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• HOA CLUBHOUSE
• SCENIC WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-605 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 118 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,059 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.65%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,269
• List price: $339,000
• Delta: -8.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2437 Boot Jack Rd	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,768 (-0%)	2mo	$339,990	$192	94
2421 Clay Creek Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,792 (+1%)	1mo	$335,000	$187	93
2501 Red Draw Rd	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,790 (+1%)	5mo	$325,000	$182	91
2409 Open Range Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,779 (+0%)	8mo	$340,000	$191	72
15816 Oak Pointe Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,773 (+0%)	3mo	$335,000	$189	71
15924 Avenel Way	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (+4%)	2mo	$319,900	$174	67
2513 Clay Creek Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,031 (+15%)	4mo	$375,000	$185	65
2561 Open Range Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,698 (-4%)	7mo	$345,000	$203	63
2541 Open Range Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,966 (+11%)	4mo	$339,000	$172	56
2437 Whispering Pines Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,970 (+11%)	2mo	$339,900	$173	54
2705 Albatross Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,872 (+6%)	10mo	$355,000	$190	53
15712 Oak Pointe Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,016 (+14%)	10mo	$390,000	$193	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 0.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,482
• Equity at exit: $152,429

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $39,320
• Equity at exit: $234,911

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76177

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,446 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$576 /mo · $6,916/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-605

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,212

Max offer price $232,059

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15712 Buffalo Nickel Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	2016	$2,495	$1.24	7d	1	0.20mi
2343 Pratum Way Fort Worth, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5	1529	$2,676	$1.75	1d	10	0.28mi
15621 Bovis Way Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$2,321	$2.14	1d	32	0.38mi
2744 Cedar Ridge Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1944	$2,091	$1.08	7d	1	0.58mi
15704 Oak Pointe Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$2,595	$1.46	24d	1	0.61mi
15825 Carlton Oaks Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1858	$2,395	$1.29	13d	1	0.72mi
2921 Cedar Ridge Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	2011	$2,565	$1.28	44d	1	0.72mi
2036 Navada Way Justin, TX	4.0	2.5	2609	$2,260	$0.87	15d	1	1.14mi
15848 Championship Pkwy Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1100	$2,189	$1.99	2d	31	1.15mi
1973 Lariat Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,895	$1.26	19d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $339,000 Pending 118 DOM
2. 2026-04-30
   price $339,000 927-char remark

   Show marketing remark (927 chars)

   Welcome to your new home in Oak Creek Trails! Inside, you’ll find a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath layout designed for everyday living. The cozy fireplace creates a warm focal point in the living room, making it the perfect spot to gather with family and friends. The property includes the stainless steel refrigerator, washer and dryer, adding convenience for move-in ready. The roof was replaced in 2025 with wind resistant shingles, and gutters installed. Nestled in a beautiful community surrounded by the Golf Club at Champions Circle, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, charm, and lifestyle. Residents enjoy access to the HOA clubhouse, sparkling pool, and scenic walking trails — ideal for relaxing evenings and active mornings. With inviting spaces, thoughtful features, and a sought-after community setting, this home truly checks all the boxes. Come see why life in Oak Creek Trails feels so good!

3. 2026-03-16
   price $345,000 927-char remark

   Show marketing remark (927 chars)

   Welcome to your new home in Oak Creek Trails! Inside, you’ll find a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath layout designed for everyday living. The cozy fireplace creates a warm focal point in the living room, making it the perfect spot to gather with family and friends. The property includes the stainless steel refrigerator, washer and dryer, adding convenience for move-in ready. The roof was replaced in 2025 with wind resistant shingles, and gutters installed. Nestled in a beautiful community surrounded by the Golf Club at Champions Circle, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, charm, and lifestyle. Residents enjoy access to the HOA clubhouse, sparkling pool, and scenic walking trails — ideal for relaxing evenings and active mornings. With inviting spaces, thoughtful features, and a sought-after community setting, this home truly checks all the boxes. Come see why life in Oak Creek Trails feels so good!

4. 2026-03-02
   price $350,000 927-char remark

   Show marketing remark (927 chars)

   Welcome to your new home in Oak Creek Trails! Inside, you’ll find a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath layout designed for everyday living. The cozy fireplace creates a warm focal point in the living room, making it the perfect spot to gather with family and friends. The property includes the stainless steel refrigerator, washer and dryer, adding convenience for move-in ready. The roof was replaced in 2025 with wind resistant shingles, and gutters installed. Nestled in a beautiful community surrounded by the Golf Club at Champions Circle, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, charm, and lifestyle. Residents enjoy access to the HOA clubhouse, sparkling pool, and scenic walking trails — ideal for relaxing evenings and active mornings. With inviting spaces, thoughtful features, and a sought-after community setting, this home truly checks all the boxes. Come see why life in Oak Creek Trails feels so good!

5. 2026-02-01
   listed $360,000 Active 927-char remark

   Show marketing remark (927 chars)

   Welcome to your new home in Oak Creek Trails! Inside, you’ll find a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath layout designed for everyday living. The cozy fireplace creates a warm focal point in the living room, making it the perfect spot to gather with family and friends. The property includes the stainless steel refrigerator, washer and dryer, adding convenience for move-in ready. The roof was replaced in 2025 with wind resistant shingles, and gutters installed. Nestled in a beautiful community surrounded by the Golf Club at Champions Circle, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, charm, and lifestyle. Residents enjoy access to the HOA clubhouse, sparkling pool, and scenic walking trails — ideal for relaxing evenings and active mornings. With inviting spaces, thoughtful features, and a sought-after community setting, this home truly checks all the boxes. Come see why life in Oak Creek Trails feels so good!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,916 · $576/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,916 · $576/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$6,916
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,348
• − Management: −$2,348
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$13,315
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,196
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,012
• Household income: $104,189
• Rent vs Own: 53.6% rent · 46.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 494.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 11% Black 11% Asian 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 4% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.96%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $339,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $345,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $350,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $360,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+39.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,916 · +47.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.