812 E State St

Astoria, IL 61501

$39,900A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 283 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,162/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $660/mo
• Annual: $7,923/yr
• Cap rate: 26.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.92%
• DSCR: 4.16
• 1% rule: 2.91%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $660 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#904 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Astoria CUSD 1 (rural): math 6% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #739 of 919 in IL (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Astoria Elem School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,043 of 2,056 statewide, top 51%, 130 students, 0% FRL); Astoria Junior High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #550 of 665 statewide, top 84%, 67 students, 0% FRL); Astoria High School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #357 of 693 statewide, top 54%, 73 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fulton County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.