812 E State St · Astoria, IL 61501

$39,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 283 Days on market

Built 1900 $28/sqft · 29% below area Est $56k · 29% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Solid 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located on a quiet street surrounded by well-kept homes in Astoria, IL, value priced far below market for a quick cash sale. This property offers excellent potential for steady rental income or future profits, making it a great investment opportunity or a private residence for raising a family. Exterior viewing only—no interior showings or photos available. The home is vacant and being sold as-is, with no contingencies accepted.An updated RPR report may be provided upon request. Taxes paid till 2026. Buyer or Buyer's agent to verify MLS info.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1900
• Listed 283 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $660 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#904 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Astoria CUSD 1 (rural): math 6% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #739 of 919 in IL (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Astoria Elem School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,043 of 2,056 statewide, top 51%, 130 students, 0% FRL); Astoria Junior High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #550 of 665 statewide, top 84%, 67 students, 0% FRL); Astoria High School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #357 of 693 statewide, top 54%, 73 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.92%
• DSCR: 4.16
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $56,185
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -28.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
906 E Broadway St	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,428 (+2%)	10mo	$50,000	$35	75
208 E Church St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,432 (+2%)	17mo	$48,000	$34	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 75.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.14×
• Total profit: $46,296
• Equity at exit: $17,335

10-year hold

• IRR: 75.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.54×
• Total profit: $106,605
• Equity at exit: $26,253

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61501

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $381/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $326

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $683	-5% $672	+0% $660	+5% $649	+10% $638
Rent	-10% $568	-5% $614	+0% $660	+5% $706	+10% $752
Rate	-1.0pp $680	-0.5pp $670	base $660	+0.5pp $650	+1.0pp $639

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,900 Active 283 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,900 Active 282 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 278 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 275 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 274 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 271 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,900 Active 270 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 269 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 265 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 264 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 263 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 262 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 261 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    status Active 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Solid 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located on a quiet street surrounded by well-kept homes in Astoria, IL, value priced far below market for a quick cash sale. This property offers excellent potential for steady rental income or future profits, making it a great investment opportunity or a private residence for raising a family. Exterior viewing only—no interior showings or photos available. The home is vacant and being sold as-is, with no contingencies accepted.An updated RPR report may be provided upon request. Taxes paid till 2026. Buyer or Buyer's agent to verify MLS info.

18. 2026-04-04
    historical Active Under Contract 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Solid 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located on a quiet street surrounded by well-kept homes in Astoria, IL, value priced far below market for a quick cash sale. This property offers excellent potential for steady rental income or future profits, making it a great investment opportunity or a private residence for raising a family. Exterior viewing only—no interior showings or photos available. The home is vacant and being sold as-is, with no contingencies accepted.An updated RPR report may be provided upon request. Taxes paid till 2026. Buyer or Buyer's agent to verify MLS info.

19. 2025-10-27
    price $39,900 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Solid 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located on a quiet street surrounded by well-kept homes in Astoria, IL, value priced far below market for a quick cash sale. This property offers excellent potential for steady rental income or future profits, making it a great investment opportunity or a private residence for raising a family. Exterior viewing only—no interior showings or photos available. The home is vacant and being sold as-is, with no contingencies accepted.An updated RPR report may be provided upon request. Taxes paid till 2026. Buyer or Buyer's agent to verify MLS info.

20. 2025-09-11
    listed $49,000 Active 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Solid 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located on a quiet street surrounded by well-kept homes in Astoria, IL, value priced far below market for a quick cash sale. This property offers excellent potential for steady rental income or future profits, making it a great investment opportunity or a private residence for raising a family. Exterior viewing only—no interior showings or photos available. The home is vacant and being sold as-is, with no contingencies accepted.An updated RPR report may be provided upon request. Taxes paid till 2026. Buyer or Buyer's agent to verify MLS info.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $381 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $643 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$262/yr (+$22/mo · 68.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$381
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,115
• − Management: −$1,115
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,735
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,857
• After-tax cash flow: $6,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Astoria CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1704440
• Math proficiency: 6% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $41,718
• Composite: 18.74/100
• National rank: #14004
• State rank: #739 of 919 in IL

Livability — Astoria

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #904
• US rank: #17575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Astoria, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,612

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,356 people
• By 2030: 32,144 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 29,518 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 26,775 · -19.7%
• By 2075: 19,972 · -40.1%
• By 2100: 13,580 · -59.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.8) · D 37.1% · R 60.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.2pp toward R · 2008: 21.3pp · 2024: -23.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+15.1 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+21.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.73%
• Current HPI: 128.8523
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-18.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $39,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-11 Listed $49,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $381 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.