3647 Black Brant Dr

Radisson, NY 13090

$209,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1999 · Townhouse · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,190/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$653
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-18/mo
• Annual: $-220/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-220/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (1.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $209k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (1.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baldwinsville Central School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #355 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: L Pearl Palmer Elementary School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #1,190 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 470 students, 20% FRL); Donald S Ray School (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 846 students, 31% FRL); Charles W Baker High School (math 97% / reading 70%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 1,281 students, 28% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Radisson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.