3647 Black Brant Dr · Radisson, NY 13090

$209,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Townhouse public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1999 Est $216k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy one floor living in this wonderful neighborhood of Willow Stream! 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 car garage, Full basement providing plenty of storage, separate laundry room in unit on main floor, Baldwinsville school district, and a deck!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1999
• Listed 30 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-220/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (1.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $209k).
• Recommended offer: $206k (1.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Radisson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baldwinsville Central School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #355 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: L Pearl Palmer Elementary School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #1,190 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 470 students, 20% FRL); Donald S Ray School (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 846 students, 31% FRL); Charles W Baker High School (math 97% / reading 70%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 1,281 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.

Recommended offer $205,760 (1.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4226 Anguilla Dr	0.32mi	2/1.5	1,212 (+1%)	7mo	$250,000	$206	76
4216 Anguilla Dr	0.30mi	2/1.5	1,212 (+1%)	10mo	$240,000	$198	74
8440 Fathom Dr	0.38mi	2/1.5	1,176 (-2%)	5mo	$210,000	$179	73
8430 Fathom Dr	0.38mi	2/1.5	1,176 (-2%)	9mo	$191,000	$162	69
8423 Fathom Dr	0.42mi	2/1.5	1,196 (-0%)	12mo	$192,500	$161	68
8448 Fathom Dr	0.40mi	2/1.5	1,196 (-0%)	15mo	$215,000	$180	66
8484 Fathom Dr	0.48mi	2/1.5	1,176 (-2%)	8mo	$213,000	$181	65
8432 Bubbling Springs Dr	0.53mi	2/1.5	1,176 (-2%)	7mo	$240,000	$204	64
8523 Sextant Dr	0.46mi	2/1.5	1,176 (-2%)	14mo	$169,750	$144	62
8493 Bubbling Springs Dr	0.59mi	2/1.5	1,176 (-2%)	9mo	$187,450	$159	59
8228 Vicksburg Pl	0.66mi	2/1.5	1,200 (0%)	10mo	$209,900	$175	59
8433 Bubbling Springs Dr	0.55mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,176 (-2%)	10mo	$250,000	$213	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-34,815
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-30,927
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13090

• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$566 /mo · $6,788/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,214

Max offer price $205,760

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $41	+0% $-18	+5% $-77	+10% $-137
Rent	-10% $-191	-5% $-105	+0% $-18	+5% $68	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $35	base $-18	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4220 Anguilla Dr Liverpool, NY	2.0	1.5	1212	$2,200	$1.82	15d	1	0.32mi
3754C Helios Ct Baldwinsville, NY	2.0	2.5	1358	$1,750	$1.29	15d	1	0.65mi
3801 Rivers Pointe Way Liverpool, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$2,078	$1.87	15d	14	0.74mi
3788 Timber Trl Liverpool, NY	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1245	$2,350	$1.89	15d	19	0.85mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2023-12-27
   status Pending
2. 2021-09-23
   soldstatus $200,000
3. 2021-08-18
   status Pending Sale
4. 2021-07-19
   listed $209,000 Active
5. 2018-11-30
   soldstatus $158,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,788 · $566/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,788 · $566/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$6,788
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$3,541
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$850
• After-tax cash flow: $630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwinsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,182
• Composite: 44.22/100
• National rank: #2848
• State rank: #355 of 590 in NY

Livability — Radisson

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,004
• Household income: $88,492
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 733.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.53%
• Current HPI: 320.4989
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+26.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2023-12-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-18 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-07-19 Listed $209,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,788 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.