195 New York Ave

New Brunswick, NJ 08901

$4,300D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,308 sqft · Built 1947 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,816/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$23
• Tax + insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$801
• Net cashflow: $2,985/mo
• Annual: $35,822/yr
• Cap rate: 839.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 2975.23%
• DSCR: 133.38
• 1% rule: 88.75%
• Cash to close: $1,204

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $4k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($36k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $4k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $30 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $129 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#154 in NJ, #3,986 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• New Brunswick School District (urban): math 4% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #463 of 472 in NJ (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 49 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,971 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (1,193 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Middlesex County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 839.4% vs local median 3.8% in New Brunswick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,816/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 4329% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.