7970 1st

Somerset, TX 78069

$175,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Pending · 135 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,651/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $136/mo
• Annual: $1,637/yr
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.34%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (5.6% below list).
• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#639 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Somerset ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #417 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Somerset El (math 60% / reading 48%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 727 students, 86% FRL); Somerset H S (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,436 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 1,148 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.7% in Somerset — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.