7970 1st · Somerset, TX 78069

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 135 Days on market

Built 2022 0.32 ac lot Est $175k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location in Somerset on a quite street just off of 1604. Property is located directly behind Texas Community Bank close to stores and schools. Minutes to anywhere in San Antonio. This lot is already set up with all city services.

Key facts

• Plenty of parking
• Concrete foundation
• 2 lots

Tags

• 2 LOTS
• PLENTY OF PARKING
• CONCRETE FOUNDATION
• NO HOA
• MINUTES TO SAN ANTONIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.7% in Somerset — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#639 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Somerset ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #417 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Somerset El (math 60% / reading 48%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 727 students, 86% FRL); Somerset H S (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,436 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 1,148 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.34%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,720
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7970 1st	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$156	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $65,354
• Equity at exit: $116,543

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.76×
• Total profit: $184,028
• Equity at exit: $217,224

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78069

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,651 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,131/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,479

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $235	-5% $186	+0% $136	+5% $87	+10% $37
Rent	-10% $6	-5% $71	+0% $136	+5% $202	+10% $267
Rate	-1.0pp $225	-0.5pp $181	base $136	+0.5pp $91	+1.0pp $45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-08
   historical Active Option
3. 2026-01-24
   price $175,000
4. 2025-12-01
   listed $185,000 New
5. 2012-04-05
   soldstatus 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Great location in Somerset on a quite street just off of 1604. Property is located directly behind Texas Community Bank close to stores and schools. Minutes to anywhere in San Antonio. This lot is already set up with all city services.

6. 2012-03-21
   historical 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Great location in Somerset on a quite street just off of 1604. Property is located directly behind Texas Community Bank close to stores and schools. Minutes to anywhere in San Antonio. This lot is already set up with all city services.

7. 2012-01-12
   listed $19,500 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Great location in Somerset on a quite street just off of 1604. Property is located directly behind Texas Community Bank close to stores and schools. Minutes to anywhere in San Antonio. This lot is already set up with all city services.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,131 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,072/yr (+$89/mo · 50.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,131
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,585
• − Management: −$1,585
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$301
• After-tax cash flow: $1,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,712
• Composite: 34.01/100
• National rank: #5315
• State rank: #417 of 826 in TX

Livability — Somerset

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #639
• US rank: #12187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Somerset, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,904

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 17% White 15% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 76%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 40% English-only · Spanish 59% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Current HPI: 260.4467
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+797.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — LERA
• 2026-03-08 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $175,000 LERA
• 2025-12-01 Listed $185,000 LERA
• 2012-04-05 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2012-03-21 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2012-01-12 Listed $19,500 LERA

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,131 · -4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.