1863 164th Ln NE

Ham Lake, MN 55304

$330,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax + insurance: −$357
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $-74/mo
• Annual: $-883/yr
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $92,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-883/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (22.7% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $255k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#358 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Anoka-Hennepin Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #71 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 392 active listings in the ZIP; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask is 3% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $147k; list at $330k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in Ham Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.