1863 164th Ln NE · Ham Lake, MN 55304

$330,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1978 0.92 ac lot $344/sqft · 22% above area Est $424k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Room to Breathe in Ham Lake! Welcome to your chance to own a home on nearly an acre in beautiful Ham Lake! Nestled among mature trees this property offers the perfect blend of privacy, and potential. Enjoy the peace of country-style living while still being just minutes from everyday conveniences. The spacious lot provides endless possibilities — whether you dream of outdoor entertaining, planting your garden, or simply enjoying the extra space around you. The home offers a solid layout with great bones and plenty of opportunity to make it your own. With a little vision, this property can truly shine. If you’ve been searching for space, privacy, and the chance to create something special, this Ham Lake property is one you won’t want to miss.

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-883/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in Ham Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#358 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Anoka-Hennepin Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #71 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 392 active listings in the ZIP; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask is 3% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $147k; list at $330k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $254,954 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $424,394
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: -22.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-58,239
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-57,071
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55304

• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,636/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,643

Max offer price $317,006

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $330,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $330,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $330,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    status Active 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    Room to Breathe in Ham Lake! Welcome to your chance to own a home on nearly an acre in beautiful Ham Lake! Nestled among mature trees this property offers the perfect blend of privacy, and potential. Enjoy the peace of country-style living while still being just minutes from everyday conveniences. The spacious lot provides endless possibilities — whether you dream of outdoor entertaining, planting your garden, or simply enjoying the extra space around you. The home offers a solid layout with great bones and plenty of opportunity to make it your own. With a little vision, this property can truly shine. If you’ve been searching for space, privacy, and the chance to create something special, this Ham Lake property is one you won’t want to miss.

16. 2026-05-06
    price $330,000 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    Room to Breathe in Ham Lake! Welcome to your chance to own a home on nearly an acre in beautiful Ham Lake! Nestled among mature trees this property offers the perfect blend of privacy, and potential. Enjoy the peace of country-style living while still being just minutes from everyday conveniences. The spacious lot provides endless possibilities — whether you dream of outdoor entertaining, planting your garden, or simply enjoying the extra space around you. The home offers a solid layout with great bones and plenty of opportunity to make it your own. With a little vision, this property can truly shine. If you’ve been searching for space, privacy, and the chance to create something special, this Ham Lake property is one you won’t want to miss.

17. 2026-03-10
    listed $320,000 Active 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    Room to Breathe in Ham Lake! Welcome to your chance to own a home on nearly an acre in beautiful Ham Lake! Nestled among mature trees this property offers the perfect blend of privacy, and potential. Enjoy the peace of country-style living while still being just minutes from everyday conveniences. The spacious lot provides endless possibilities — whether you dream of outdoor entertaining, planting your garden, or simply enjoying the extra space around you. The home offers a solid layout with great bones and plenty of opportunity to make it your own. With a little vision, this property can truly shine. If you’ve been searching for space, privacy, and the chance to create something special, this Ham Lake property is one you won’t want to miss.

18. 2026-03-06
    historical $320,000 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    Room to Breathe in Ham Lake! Welcome to your chance to own a home on nearly an acre in beautiful Ham Lake! Nestled among mature trees this property offers the perfect blend of privacy, and potential. Enjoy the peace of country-style living while still being just minutes from everyday conveniences. The spacious lot provides endless possibilities — whether you dream of outdoor entertaining, planting your garden, or simply enjoying the extra space around you. The home offers a solid layout with great bones and plenty of opportunity to make it your own. With a little vision, this property can truly shine. If you’ve been searching for space, privacy, and the chance to create something special, this Ham Lake property is one you won’t want to miss.

19. 2012-05-07
    historical 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Enjoy quiet evenings on your large porch and wild life all around this one story home with 2 stall detached garage. The home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 fireplaces, a walkout basement, and hardwood floors. Great location. Make this house a home.

20. 2012-04-30
    soldstatus $146,900 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Enjoy quiet evenings on your large porch and wild life all around this one story home with 2 stall detached garage. The home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 fireplaces, a walkout basement, and hardwood floors. Great location. Make this house a home.

21. 2012-02-16
    listed $149,900 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Enjoy quiet evenings on your large porch and wild life all around this one story home with 2 stall detached garage. The home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 fireplaces, a walkout basement, and hardwood floors. Great location. Make this house a home.

22. 2010-06-14
    historical
23. 2010-04-13
    listed $174,900
24. 2010-04-07
    historical
25. 2009-09-28
    listed $185,000
26. 2003-01-31
    soldstatus $170,400
27. 2003-01-27
    soldstatus $170,400
28. 2002-11-05
    historical
29. 2002-09-22
    listed $169,900
30. 1998-04-20
    historical
31. 1998-03-08
    listed $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,636 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,166 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: +$530/yr (+$44/mo · 20.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$2,636
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,448
• − Management: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$6,671
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,601
• After-tax cash flow: $718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anoka-Hennepin Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703180
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $73,837
• Composite: 46.7/100
• National rank: #2400
• State rank: #71 of 301 in MN

Livability — Ham Lake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #8400

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ham Lake, MN
• City population: 49,452
• Population (ZIP): 49,452

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -267.68%
• Current HPI: 242.7122
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $330,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Listed $320,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Coming Soon $320,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-30 Sold (MLS) $146,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-16 Listed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-13 Listed $174,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-28 Listed $185,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $170,400 Public Records
• 2003-01-27 Sold (MLS) $170,400 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-11-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-09-22 Listed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-04-20 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-03-08 Listed $110,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,636 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.