11631 Heritage Wind Dr

Barrett, TX 77532

$289,900F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,260 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 98 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,267/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$227
• HOA: −$48
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-4/mo
• Annual: $-52/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-52/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.