11631 Heritage Wind Dr · Barrett, TX 77532

$289,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,260 sqft · Land · 98 Days on market

Built 2026 5,865 sqft lot $128/sqft · 9% above area Est $265k · 9% over $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The desirable Silverbell floor plan offers an expansive main-floor layout, centered around an airy great room. A dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a center island are steps away and make for the perfect place to entertain. The floor also features a luxurious primary suite, complete with walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a spacious walk-in closet. The upper floor features three bedrooms and a roomy loft.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Dining area
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-52/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $226,748 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,952
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: 9.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-50,762
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-58,534
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,279/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,273

Max offer price $289,135

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $289,900 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $296,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $296,900 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $296,900 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $296,900 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $296,900 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $296,900 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $296,900 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $296,900 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-04-25
    price $296,900 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    The desirable Silverbell floor plan offers an expansive main-floor layout, centered around an airy great room. A dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a center island are steps away and make for the perfect place to entertain. The floor also features a luxurious primary suite, complete with walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a spacious walk-in closet. The upper floor features three bedrooms and a roomy loft.

15. 2026-04-22
    price $296,900 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    The desirable Silverbell floor plan offers an expansive main-floor layout, centered around an airy great room. A dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a center island are steps away and make for the perfect place to entertain. The floor also features a luxurious primary suite, complete with walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a spacious walk-in closet. The upper floor features three bedrooms and a roomy loft.

16. 2026-04-09
    price $296,150 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    The desirable Silverbell floor plan offers an expansive main-floor layout, centered around an airy great room. A dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a center island are steps away and make for the perfect place to entertain. The floor also features a luxurious primary suite, complete with walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a spacious walk-in closet. The upper floor features three bedrooms and a roomy loft.

17. 2026-04-02
    price $296,900 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    The desirable Silverbell floor plan offers an expansive main-floor layout, centered around an airy great room. A dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a center island are steps away and make for the perfect place to entertain. The floor also features a luxurious primary suite, complete with walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a spacious walk-in closet. The upper floor features three bedrooms and a roomy loft.

18. 2026-04-01
    price $269,900 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    The desirable Silverbell floor plan offers an expansive main-floor layout, centered around an airy great room. A dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a center island are steps away and make for the perfect place to entertain. The floor also features a luxurious primary suite, complete with walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a spacious walk-in closet. The upper floor features three bedrooms and a roomy loft.

19. 2026-03-12
    listed $301,900 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    The desirable Silverbell floor plan offers an expansive main-floor layout, centered around an airy great room. A dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a center island are steps away and make for the perfect place to entertain. The floor also features a luxurious primary suite, complete with walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a spacious walk-in closet. The upper floor features three bedrooms and a roomy loft.

20. 2026-01-29
    listed $301,900 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    The desirable Silverbell floor plan offers an expansive main-floor layout, centered around an airy great room. A dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a center island are steps away and make for the perfect place to entertain. The floor also features a luxurious primary suite, complete with walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a spacious walk-in closet. The upper floor features three bedrooms and a roomy loft.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,305 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,026/yr (+$336/mo · 314.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$1,279
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,177
• − Management: −$2,177
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$5,121
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,229
• After-tax cash flow: $1,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $296,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $296,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $296,150 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $296,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $301,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $301,900 Zillow

Property tax history

-4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,279 · -4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.