1624 W Willow St

Lansing, MI 48915

$99,900D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1923 · SingleFamily · Pending · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,060/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$318
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $-4/mo
• Annual: $-49/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-49/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (0.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#94 in MI, #2,182 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Lansing Public School District (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #650 of 760 in MI (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pattengill School (600 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 68% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 350 units permitted in Ingham County in 2024 (186 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ingham County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 14 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?