430 County Road 3402

Avery, TX 75559

$175,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,317/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-48/mo
• Annual: $-572/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-572/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (24.7% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#807 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Dekalb ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #403 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $175k implies a 360% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.