430 County Road 3402 · De Kalb, TX 75559

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2005 2.00 ac lot $91/sqft · 30% below area Est $248k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on approximately 2 acres in a peaceful country setting, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home built in 2005 offers a unique opportunity to step into a property with room to grow and make it your own. With approximately 1,920 square feet, the home features an open layout with vaulted ceilings across the living, kitchen, and dining areas, creating a bright and expansive feel the moment you walk in. The heart of the home showcases a large kitchen with abundant cabinetry, stainless appliances, and a central island that anchors the space—ideal for gathering, everyday living, or future customization. The living area flows seamlessly with updated flooring already in place, offering a strong foundation for the finishing touches. The property is currently in the middle of a remodel—pardon the dust—but that's where the opportunity comes in. Buyers can choose to complete the remaining work themselves and build immediate equity, or the seller is open to finishing the remodel prior to closing, with pricing reflecting the chosen direction. Major updates have already been addressed, including a new roof installed February 2024 and the transition from central HVAC to energy-efficient mini-split systems for flexible comfort control. The layout offers well-sized bedrooms, and the primary suite provides a solid footprint ready for final personalization. Additional spaces, including utility and bath areas, are in progress—giving the next owner the chance to select finishes that match their style. Set on open acreage with room for outdoor use, this property offers the balance of space, privacy, and potential—without sacrificing accessibility. If you've been searching for a property where the heavy lifting is started and the value is still yours to create, this is one worth seeing

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 2005
• Listed 67 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-572/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#721 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dekalb ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #403 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $175k implies a 360% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,745 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,382
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -29.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $18,321
• Equity at exit: $79,041

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $69,020
• Equity at exit: $122,088

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75559

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,174/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,378

Max offer price $166,573

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $2	+0% $-48	+5% $-97	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-152	-5% $-100	+0% $-48	+5% $4	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $40	-0.5pp $-3	base $-48	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    listed $175,000 Active 1830-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1830 chars)

    Tucked away on approximately 2 acres in a peaceful country setting, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home built in 2005 offers a unique opportunity to step into a property with room to grow and make it your own. With approximately 1,920 square feet, the home features an open layout with vaulted ceilings across the living, kitchen, and dining areas, creating a bright and expansive feel the moment you walk in. The heart of the home showcases a large kitchen with abundant cabinetry, stainless appliances, and a central island that anchors the space—ideal for gathering, everyday living, or future customization. The living area flows seamlessly with updated flooring already in place, offering a strong foundation for the finishing touches. The property is currently in the middle of a remodel—pardon the dust—but that's where the opportunity comes in. Buyers can choose to complete the remaining work themselves and build immediate equity, or the seller is open to finishing the remodel prior to closing, with pricing reflecting the chosen direction. Major updates have already been addressed, including a new roof installed February 2024 and the transition from central HVAC to energy-efficient mini-split systems for flexible comfort control. The layout offers well-sized bedrooms, and the primary suite provides a solid footprint ready for final personalization. Additional spaces, including utility and bath areas, are in progress—giving the next owner the chance to select finishes that match their style. Set on open acreage with room for outdoor use, this property offers the balance of space, privacy, and potential—without sacrificing accessibility. If you've been searching for a property where the heavy lifting is started and the value is still yours to create, this is one worth seeing

17. 2024-02-12
    soldstatus
18. 2021-01-12
    soldstatus
19. 2020-06-10
    soldstatus $38,009 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Country living on approximately 2 acres! Spacious four bedroom, three bath double wide mobile home. Living, kitchen with pantry, island, breakfast bar open to the dining area. Inside utility room. Split Master with garden tub, separate shower, two sinks and walk-in closet. Workshop with overhang to store tools. Schedule your showing today!

20. 2020-02-09
    listed $50,360 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Country living on approximately 2 acres! Spacious four bedroom, three bath double wide mobile home. Living, kitchen with pantry, island, breakfast bar open to the dining area. Inside utility room. Split Master with garden tub, separate shower, two sinks and walk-in closet. Workshop with overhang to store tools. Schedule your showing today!

21. 1999-03-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,174 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,028/yr (+$169/mo · 172.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,174
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,265
• − Management: −$1,265
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,663
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$879
• After-tax cash flow: $307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dekalb ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816570
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,661
• Composite: 34.46/100
• National rank: #5193
• State rank: #403 of 826 in TX

Livability — De Kalb

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #721
• US rank: #13453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,276

Population outlook (Bowie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,699 people
• By 2030: 94,824 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 94,870 · +0.2%
• By 2050: 93,686 · -1.1%
• By 2075: 90,082 · -4.9%
• By 2100: 76,579 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bowie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.3% · R 74.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+41.5 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Current HPI: 161.9331
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+247.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $175,000 TBOR
• 2024-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-06-10 Sold (MLS) $38,009 TBOR
• 2020-02-09 Listed $50,360 TBOR
• 1999-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,174 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.