516 Saddle Blanket Dr

Josephine, TX 75173

$301,490D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,034 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,060/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,581
• Tax + insurance: −$502
• HOA: −$46
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-502/mo
• Annual: $-6,023/yr
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.13%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $84,417

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $301k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-502 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (24.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (31.7% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John & Barbara Roderick El (678 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 36% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.