516 Saddle Blanket Dr · Josephine, TX 75173

$301,490

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,034 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 8,276 sqft lot Est $293k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

New! Spacious open floor plan! Four bedrooms, three full baths, with separate study-den, and covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Waverly Estates is a new D. R. Horton community in Josephine. The community is conveniently located just minutes from Interstate 30, providing easy access to Rockwall and the DFW Metroplex. Waverly Estates offers a variety of single-family homes to choose from. If you're looking for a new home in the Josephine area, Waverly Estates is the perfect community for you.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $301k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-503 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (24.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (31.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John & Barbara Roderick El (678 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 36% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $205,948 (31.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.14%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,896
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
516 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,034 (0%)	1mo	$301,490	$148	100
512 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	2,024 (-0%)	2mo	$291,535	$144	92
1133 Bristlecone Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,024 (-0%)	0mo	$324,990	$161	86
311 American Elm Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0	2,037 (+0%)	3mo	$281,490	$138	77
505 Silver Birch Dr	0.16mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,938 (-5%)	0mo	$269,990	$139	76
506 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,801 (-12%)	1mo	$290,990	$162	73
205 Weathered Way	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,042 (+0%)	2mo	$342,990	$168	71
407 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,801 (-12%)	2mo	$273,990	$152	69
505 Plum Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,891 (-7%)	3mo	$265,000	$140	62
500 Northern Red Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,314 (+14%)	1mo	$303,490	$131	60
708 Wisteria Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,155 (+6%)	1mo	$255,000	$118	59
403 American Elm Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	2,314 (+14%)	3mo	$294,490	$127	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $132,252
• Equity at exit: $271,606

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.91×
• Total profit: $414,748
• Equity at exit: $585,729

Cash invested: $84,417 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,059 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,581
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,522/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,696

Max offer price $228,772

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,372
• Closing costs: $9,045
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	15d	1	0.05mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	6d	1	0.05mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	44d	1	0.06mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	10d	1	0.46mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	25d	1	0.75mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	44d	1	0.77mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	6d	1	0.80mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	44d	1	0.86mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	5d	1	0.98mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	2d	1	0.99mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	13d	1	1.00mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	7d	1	1.00mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	7d	1	1.00mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	44d	1	1.01mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,875	$1.22	25d	1	1.04mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,900	$1.24	44d	1	1.04mi
1503 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	44d	1	1.07mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	1d	1	1.10mi
1501 Bridle Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	44d	1	1.12mi
813 Cottonwood Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,350	$1.00	13d	1	1.13mi
1210 Honeysuckle Dr Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	1995	$2,100	$1.05	13d	1	1.14mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	1d	1	1.16mi
1208 Fieldstone Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	44d	1	1.23mi
711 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	7d	1	1.23mi
1413 Thunder Canyon Way Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	2006	$2,500	$1.25	44d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   price $301,490
3. 2026-04-08
   listed $331,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,888
• − Property taxes: −$4,522
• − Insurance: −$1,507
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,977
• − Management: −$1,977
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$8,771
• Taxable loss: −$11,481
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,755
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $301,490 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $331,490 NTREIS