1711 Little Black Creek Rd

Lumberton, MS 39455

$44,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $982/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax + insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $491/mo
• Annual: $5,895/yr
• Cap rate: 19.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.85%
• DSCR: 3.13
• 1% rule: 2.23%
• Cash to close: $12,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $44k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($982 rent vs $44k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $43k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($304 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#53 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar County School District (rural): math 48% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #18 of 130 in MS (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lamar County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 4.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.