1711 Little Black Creek Rd · Lumberton, MS 39455

$44,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1981 2.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Distressed investment opportunity on two acres in Lumberton. Existing three-bedroom, one-bath home in need of major rehab or potential teardown. Being sold As-Is. Great parcel to bring your creativity to life.

Key facts

• Major rehab
• Existing home
• Potential teardown

Tags

• TWO ACRES
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• EXISTING HOME
• MAJOR REHAB
• POTENTIAL TEARDOWN
• SOLD AS IS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Community water; Electricity available; Water service available
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Raised foundation
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Gravel parking area; 2-acre lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Appliances described as 'Other'

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($982 rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 4.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#53 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar County School District (rural): math 48% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #18 of 130 in MS (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($304 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Lamar County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,340 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.85%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.84×
• Total profit: $47,281
• Equity at exit: $31,157

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.25×
• Total profit: $113,970
• Equity at exit: $59,798

Cash invested: $12,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39455

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $423/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $360

Max offer price $44,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $516	-5% $504	+0% $491	+5% $479	+10% $466
Rent	-10% $414	-5% $452	+0% $491	+5% $530	+10% $569
Rate	-1.0pp $513	-0.5pp $502	base $491	+0.5pp $480	+1.0pp $468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,000
• Closing costs: $1,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Distressed investment opportunity on two acres in Lumberton. Existing three-bedroom, one-bath home in need of major rehab or potential teardown. Being sold As-Is. Great parcel to bring your creativity to life.

2. 2026-05-01
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Distressed investment opportunity on two acres in Lumberton. Existing three-bedroom, one-bath home in need of major rehab or potential teardown. Being sold As-Is. Great parcel to bring your creativity to life.

3. 2026-04-25
   status Active 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Distressed investment opportunity on two acres in Lumberton. Existing three-bedroom, one-bath home in need of major rehab or potential teardown. Being sold As-Is. Great parcel to bring your creativity to life.

4. 2026-04-25
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Distressed investment opportunity on two acres in Lumberton. Existing three-bedroom, one-bath home in need of major rehab or potential teardown. Being sold As-Is. Great parcel to bring your creativity to life.

5. 2026-03-04
   status Pending 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Distressed investment opportunity on two acres in Lumberton. Existing three-bedroom, one-bath home in need of major rehab or potential teardown. Being sold As-Is. Great parcel to bring your creativity to life.

6. 2026-03-04
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Distressed investment opportunity on two acres in Lumberton. Existing three-bedroom, one-bath home in need of major rehab or potential teardown. Being sold As-Is. Great parcel to bring your creativity to life.

7. 2026-02-11
   listed $44,000 Active 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Distressed investment opportunity on two acres in Lumberton. Existing three-bedroom, one-bath home in need of major rehab or potential teardown. Being sold As-Is. Great parcel to bring your creativity to life.

8. 2026-02-07
   listed $44,000 Active
9. 2004-08-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $423 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $423 · $35/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,465
• − Property taxes: −$423
• − Insurance: −$220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$942
• − Management: −$942
• − Depreciation: −$1,280
• Taxable income: $5,508
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,322
• After-tax cash flow: $4,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802400
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,742
• Composite: 40.77/100
• National rank: #3645
• State rank: #18 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #8568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,030
• Population (ZIP): 9,030

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,826 people
• By 2030: 77,309 · +7.6%
• By 2040: 87,733 · +22.1%
• By 2050: 97,289 · +35.5%
• By 2075: 115,347 · +60.6%
• By 2100: 125,601 · +74.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 15% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.8) · D 25.0% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.0pp toward D · 2008: -55.8pp · 2024: -48.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.8 2020: R+46.9 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+55.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.23%
• Current HPI: 202.5728
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — HAAR
• 2026-05-01 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — HAAR
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-03-04 Pending — HAAR
• 2026-03-04 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-02-11 Listed $44,000 HAAR
• 2026-02-07 Listed $44,000 MLSU
• 2004-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $423 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.