2301 W Michigan Ave #18

Bellview, FL 32526

$99,000B+

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,164 sqft · Built 2005 · Townhouse · Active · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,476/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$599
• HOA: −$99
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-51/mo
• Annual: $-608/yr
• Cap rate: 10.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.27%
• DSCR: 1.72
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $99k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-608/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $90k (9.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#561 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 5.2% in Bellview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — Significant peeling and wear on the exterior siding
• Major: paint — Peeling paint on the exterior and interior walls
• Minor: flooring — Worn-out carpet in the living area that can be replaced