Aspen II Plan

Foristell, MO 63348

$304,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,539 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 508 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,079/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,868
• Tax + insurance: −$594
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-819/mo
• Annual: $-9,831/yr
• Cap rate: 3.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.86%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $99,725

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-819 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (31.8% below list).
• It's been on market 508 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $208k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#484 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Boone Trail Elem. (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #342 of 1,115 statewide, top 31%, 535 students, 10% FRL); Wentzville South Middle (math 49% / reading 51%, grade C, #68 of 391 statewide, top 18%, 1,131 students, 14% FRL); Timberland High (math 36% / reading 63%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,676 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 508 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.