Aspen II Plan · Foristell, MO 63348

$304,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,539 sqft · SingleFamily · 508 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This open concept ranch home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with 7 different exterior elevation choices. Your family will enjoy the open floorplan of this beautiful home! The great room leads into the kitchen with center island and the dining area. Enjoy the serenity from your covered patio or deck just off this space, too! The master suite features dual closets and a private master bath. The main floor also features large walk in pantry and laundry room. Additional choices include bay windows in dining room or master bedroom, luxury master bath, breakfast bar, and garage extension.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Covered patio
• Private master bath

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT RANCH HOME
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE MASTER BATH
• LARGE WALK IN PANTRY
• BREAKFAST BAR

🏗️ New construction. The $304,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $356,160.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-819 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (31.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#484 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Boone Trail Elem. (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #342 of 1,115 statewide, top 31%, 535 students, 10% FRL); Wentzville South Middle (math 49% / reading 51%, grade C, #68 of 391 statewide, top 18%, 1,131 students, 14% FRL); Timberland High (math 36% / reading 63%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,676 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 508 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $207,864 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 508 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.86%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,160
• List price: $304,900
• Delta: -14.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
808 Colony Ridge Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,539 (0%)	0mo	$364,900	$237	97
117 Liberty Valley Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-1%)	6mo	$320,000	$210	90
406 Honor Hill Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,562 (+2%)	4mo	$350,000	$224	89
47 Town Centre Ct	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,405 (-9%)	2mo	$299,900	$213	78
39 Town Centre Ct	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,405 (-9%)	3mo	$299,900	$213	77
114 Town Centre Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,719 (+12%)	3mo	$329,900	$192	71
2 Town Centre Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,719 (+12%)	4mo	$334,900	$195	71
317 Freedom Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+12%)	2mo	$339,900	$197	71
414 Honor Hill Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+12%)	3mo	$359,999	$208	69
510 Founders Way	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+12%)	7mo	$339,900	$197	67
166 Liberty Valley Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+12%)	2mo	$349,900	$202	65
144 Liberty Valley Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-13%)	8mo	$318,900	$239	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-109,858
• Equity at exit: $53,105

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-162,721
• Equity at exit: $30,794

Cash invested: $99,725 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.3 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $307,108 ($200/sqft)
• Median days on market: 360 d
• This list price: 47% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 63348

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,079 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,868
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$445 /mo · $5,342/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-819

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,116

Max offer price $237,618

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-573	-5% $-696	+0% $-819	+5% $-942	+10% $-1,065
Rent	-10% $-983	-5% $-901	+0% $-819	+5% $-737	+10% $-655
Rate	-1.0pp $-640	-0.5pp $-729	base $-819	+0.5pp $-912	+1.0pp $-1,005

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,040
• Closing costs: $10,685
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $304,900 Active 508 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $304,900 Active 507 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $304,900 Active 506 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $304,900 Active 505 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $304,900 Active 504 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $304,900 Active 503 DOM
7. 2026-08-01
   days on market $304,900 Active 500 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $304,900 Active 499 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $304,900 Active 498 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $304,900 Active 497 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $304,900 Active 495 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $304,900 Active 493 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $304,900 Active 492 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $304,900 Active 491 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $304,900 Active 490 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $304,900 Active 489 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $304,900 Active 487 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $304,900 Active 486 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $304,900 Active 485 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $304,900 Active 484 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $304,900 Active 483 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $304,900 Active 482 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $304,900 Active 481 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $304,900 Active 480 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $304,900 Active 479 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $304,900 Active 478 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $304,900 Active 476 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $304,900 Active 475 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $304,900 Active 474 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $304,900 Active 472 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $304,900 Active 471 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $304,900 Active 470 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $304,900 Active 469 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $304,900 Active 468 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $304,900 Active 467 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $304,900 Active 466 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $304,900 Active 465 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $304,900 Active 463 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $304,900 Active 461 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $304,900 Active 460 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $304,900 Active 457 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $304,900 Active 456 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $304,900 Active 455 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $304,900 Active 454 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $304,900 Active 452 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $304,900 Active 451 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $304,900 Active 448 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $304,900 Active 447 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $304,900 Active 446 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $304,900 Active 443 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,951
• − Property taxes: −$5,342
• − Insurance: −$1,781
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,995
• − Management: −$1,995
• − Depreciation: −$10,361
• Taxable loss: −$16,482
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,956
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This open-concept ranch home is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It's ready for immediate occupancy and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Journey Elementary F MO #472/1,115 Nat'l #17,359/41,679 Middle North Point Middle School High North Point High School

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Foristell

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #484
• US rank: #18988

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Foristell, MO
• County: St. Charles · 437,857 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 10,207
• Household income: $106,458
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.34%
• Current HPI: 219.9838
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+7.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $304,900 Zillow
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
• 2025-01-15 Price Changed $294,900 Zillow
• 2024-12-31 Listed $284,900 Zillow