Aspen II Plan · Foristell, MO 63348

$304,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,539 sqft · SingleFamily · 457 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This open concept ranch home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with 7 different exterior elevation choices. Your family will enjoy the open floorplan of this beautiful home! The great room leads into the kitchen with center island and the dining area. Enjoy the serenity from your covered patio or deck just off this space, too! The master suite features dual closets and a private master bath. The main floor also features large walk in pantry and laundry room. Additional choices include bay windows in dining room or master bedroom, luxury master bath, breakfast bar, and garage extension.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Covered patio
• Private master bath

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT RANCH HOME
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE MASTER BATH
• LARGE WALK IN PANTRY
• BREAKFAST BAR

🏗️ New construction. The $304,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $349,296.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-511 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#484 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 457 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $240,903 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 457 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.27%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,296
• List price: $304,900
• Delta: -12.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
117 Liberty Valley Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-1%)	4mo	$320,000	$210	91
406 Honor Hill Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,562 (+2%)	2mo	$350,000	$224	91
47 Town Centre Ct	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,405 (-9%)	0mo	$299,900	$213	80
39 Town Centre Ct	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,405 (-9%)	2mo	$299,900	$213	78
114 Town Centre Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,719 (+12%)	1mo	$329,900	$192	72
2 Town Centre Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,719 (+12%)	2mo	$334,900	$195	72
317 Freedom Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+12%)	1mo	$339,900	$197	72
414 Honor Hill Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+12%)	2mo	$359,999	$208	70
510 Founders Way	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+12%)	6mo	$339,900	$197	68
166 Liberty Valley Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+12%)	0mo	$349,900	$202	66
144 Liberty Valley Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-13%)	6mo	$318,900	$239	66
183 Liberty Valley Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+12%)	6mo	$339,900	$197	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-89,096
• Equity at exit: $52,081

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-119,325
• Equity at exit: $30,201

Cash invested: $97,803 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63348

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,409 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,832
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,239/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,056

Max offer price $275,386

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,324
• Closing costs: $10,479
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,900 Active 457 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,900 Active 456 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,900 Active 455 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,900 Active 454 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,900 Active 452 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,900 Active 451 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $304,900 Active 448 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $304,900 Active 447 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $304,900 Active 446 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $304,900 Active 443 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $304,900 Active 442 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $304,900 Active 441 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $304,900 Active 440 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $304,900 Active 439 DOM
15. 2026-01-16
    status Active 595-char remark

    Show marketing remark (595 chars)

    This open concept ranch home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with 7 different exterior elevation choices. Your family will enjoy the open floorplan of this beautiful home! The great room leads into the kitchen with center island and the dining area. Enjoy the serenity from your covered patio or deck just off this space, too! The master suite features dual closets and a private master bath. The main floor also features large walk in pantry and laundry room. Additional choices include bay windows in dining room or master bedroom, luxury master bath, breakfast bar, and garage extension.

16. 2025-10-31
    historical 595-char remark

    Show marketing remark (595 chars)

    This open concept ranch home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with 7 different exterior elevation choices. Your family will enjoy the open floorplan of this beautiful home! The great room leads into the kitchen with center island and the dining area. Enjoy the serenity from your covered patio or deck just off this space, too! The master suite features dual closets and a private master bath. The main floor also features large walk in pantry and laundry room. Additional choices include bay windows in dining room or master bedroom, luxury master bath, breakfast bar, and garage extension.

17. 2025-06-04
    price $304,900 595-char remark

    Show marketing remark (595 chars)

    This open concept ranch home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with 7 different exterior elevation choices. Your family will enjoy the open floorplan of this beautiful home! The great room leads into the kitchen with center island and the dining area. Enjoy the serenity from your covered patio or deck just off this space, too! The master suite features dual closets and a private master bath. The main floor also features large walk in pantry and laundry room. Additional choices include bay windows in dining room or master bedroom, luxury master bath, breakfast bar, and garage extension.

18. 2025-05-01
    price $299,900 595-char remark

    Show marketing remark (595 chars)

    This open concept ranch home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with 7 different exterior elevation choices. Your family will enjoy the open floorplan of this beautiful home! The great room leads into the kitchen with center island and the dining area. Enjoy the serenity from your covered patio or deck just off this space, too! The master suite features dual closets and a private master bath. The main floor also features large walk in pantry and laundry room. Additional choices include bay windows in dining room or master bedroom, luxury master bath, breakfast bar, and garage extension.

19. 2025-01-15
    price $294,900 595-char remark

    Show marketing remark (595 chars)

    This open concept ranch home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with 7 different exterior elevation choices. Your family will enjoy the open floorplan of this beautiful home! The great room leads into the kitchen with center island and the dining area. Enjoy the serenity from your covered patio or deck just off this space, too! The master suite features dual closets and a private master bath. The main floor also features large walk in pantry and laundry room. Additional choices include bay windows in dining room or master bedroom, luxury master bath, breakfast bar, and garage extension.

20. 2024-12-31
    listed $284,900 Active 595-char remark

    Show marketing remark (595 chars)

    This open concept ranch home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with 7 different exterior elevation choices. Your family will enjoy the open floorplan of this beautiful home! The great room leads into the kitchen with center island and the dining area. Enjoy the serenity from your covered patio or deck just off this space, too! The master suite features dual closets and a private master bath. The main floor also features large walk in pantry and laundry room. Additional choices include bay windows in dining room or master bedroom, luxury master bath, breakfast bar, and garage extension.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,566
• − Property taxes: −$5,239
• − Insurance: −$1,746
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,313
• − Management: −$2,313
• − Depreciation: −$10,161
• Taxable loss: −$12,430
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,983
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This open-concept ranch home is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It's ready for immediate occupancy and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

Livability — Foristell

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #484
• US rank: #18988

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Foristell, MO
• Population (ZIP): 10,207

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.34%
• Current HPI: 219.9838
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+7.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $304,900 Zillow
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
• 2025-01-15 Price Changed $294,900 Zillow
• 2024-12-31 Listed $284,900 Zillow