2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,842 sqft ·
Built 1963
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 267 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,249/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$409
Tax + insurance
−$138
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$262
Net cashflow
$439/mo
Annual
$5,274/yr
Cap rate
13.05%
Cash-on-cash
24.15%
DSCR
2.07
1% rule
1.60%
Cash to close
$21,840
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $71 of equity ($539 loan paydown + $-468 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#378 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Hueytown Intermediate School (math 11% / reading 35%, grade F, #431 of 627 statewide, top 69%, 481 students, 63% FRL); Hueytown Middle School (math 0% / reading 30%, grade F, #206 of 257 statewide, top 80%, 789 students, 62% FRL); Hueytown High School (math 7% / reading 20%, grade F, #235 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 1,210 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 295 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 5.8% in Hueytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: exterior siding
— Weathered appearance
Minor: interior paint
— Slight discoloration
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· Data 1 month agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29