2128 Hilliard Rd

Lakeside, VA 23228

$219,950C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,130 sqft · Built 1938 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,858/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $90/mo
• Annual: $1,085/yr
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.76%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $61,586

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (15.5% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $186k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#219 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Elizabeth Holladay Elementary (math 13% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,108 statewide, top 97%, 796 students, 90% FRL); George H. Moody Middle (math 61% / reading 71%, grade A-, #113 of 342 statewide, top 33%, 1,072 students, 40% FRL); Hermitage High (math 38% / reading 74%, grade C, #275 of 319 statewide, top 87%, 1,717 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 34% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $220k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.9% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.