2128 Hilliard Rd · Lakeside, VA 23228

$219,950

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,130 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1938 10,624 sqft lot Est $363k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

All Investors take notice! Unlimited opportunity awaits at this awesome home in Lakeside! Great potential with this 3-bedroom Cape Cod situated on a level lot with a deep backyard. Features include a 1.5 car detached garage/ workshop! Heating for the property includes a new boiler with Radiators throughout the home. Property will is being sold "as-is". Don't delay - Conveniently located near restaurants, shopping, Lewis Ginter Botanical Garden, interstate access, and local breweries. This one is completely ready for a full Revival! Priced to sell!

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1938

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Off-street parking; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property
• Construction: Drywall and frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Cleared, level lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub & shower; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Radiator heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Decorative fireplace; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.9% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#219 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Elizabeth Holladay Elementary (math 13% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,108 statewide, top 97%, 796 students, 90% FRL); George H. Moody Middle (math 61% / reading 71%, grade A-, #113 of 342 statewide, top 33%, 1,072 students, 40% FRL); Hermitage High (math 38% / reading 74%, grade C, #275 of 319 statewide, top 87%, 1,717 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 34% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $220k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,798 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.76%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $362,730
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2408 Lincoln Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,075 (-5%)	3mo	$345,000	$321	77
2319 Dee Kay Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,088 (-4%)	1mo	$330,000	$303	72
2509 Parkside Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,110 (-2%)	2mo	$240,000	$216	69
2300 Nelson St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,122 (-1%)	1mo	$375,000	$334	66
6222 Ellis Ave	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,032 (-9%)	5mo	$339,000	$328	66
6001 Ellis Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,192 (+6%)	6mo	$303,000	$254	57
2519 Kenwood Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0	984 (-13%)	2mo	$350,000	$356	55
2411 Alycia Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,052 (-7%)	3mo	$339,900	$323	54
2424 Alycia Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	975 (-14%)	3mo	$275,000	$282	41
7810 Hermitage Rd	0.75mi	3/1.0	975 (-14%)	3mo	$305,000	$313	38
2707 Parkside Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	980 (-13%)	8mo	$287,000	$293	37
6715 Galaxie Rd	0.75mi	3/1.0	972 (-14%)	4mo	$330,100	$340	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-35,388
• Equity at exit: $32,795

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-44,687
• Equity at exit: $19,017

Cash invested: $61,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23228

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,858 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,588/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,744

Max offer price $219,950

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $153	+0% $90	+5% $28	+10% $-34
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $17	+0% $90	+5% $164	+10% $237
Rate	-1.0pp $201	-0.5pp $146	base $90	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $-25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,988
• Closing costs: $6,598
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7609 Woodman Rd Unit 1 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	1090	$1,495	$1.37	45d	1	0.54mi
2812 Hilliard Rd Henrico, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	672	$1,452	$2.16	3d	5	0.78mi
7418 Wentworth Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	1074	$1,750	$1.63	25d	1	0.88mi
2910 Briar Ln Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	1109	$1,750	$1.58	45d	1	0.91mi
2922 Lincoln Ave Henrico, VA	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,200	$1.57	18d	1	0.95mi
2922 Lincoln Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	25d	1	0.95mi
7800 Brook Tpke Henrico, VA	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,232	$1.15	45d	1	1.11mi
1530 Skirmish Run Dr Henrico, VA	3.0	1.5	1041	$2,200	$2.11	45d	1	1.19mi
7417 Noble Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,850	$1.80	22d	1	1.24mi
1514 Cross Keys Ct Henrico, VA	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,995	$1.72	13d	1	1.35mi
1500 Forest Run Dr Henrico, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	845	$2,020	$2.39	3d	18	1.44mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $219,950 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,950 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,950 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $219,950 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $219,950 Coming Soon 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $219,950 Coming Soon 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $219,950 Coming Soon 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $219,950 Coming Soon 2 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   remarks 558-char remark
10. 2026-05-31
    listed $219,950 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,588 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,804 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$216/yr (+$18/mo · 13.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,588
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,784
• − Management: −$1,784
• − Depreciation: −$6,399
• Taxable loss: −$2,678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$643
• After-tax cash flow: $1,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #219
• US rank: #7244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 36,527
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 36,527
• Household income: $70,260
• Rent vs Own: 48.2% rent · 51.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, India
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -342.74%
• Current HPI: 349.8903
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+344.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Coming Soon $219,950 CVRMLS
• 1999-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 1985-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,588 · -9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.