1019 Winder Dr

Bristol, PA 19007

$259,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Pending · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,148/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$465
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-130/mo
• Annual: $-1,565/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.15%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (17.3% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $215k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#546 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Bristol Township SD (suburban): math 16% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #471 of 539 in PA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Benjamin Franklin Ms (math 5% / reading 30%, grade F, #455 of 512 statewide, top 89%, 729 students, 100% FRL); Truman Shs (math 52% / reading 10%, grade F, #340 of 437 statewide, top 78%, 1,670 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 49% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 132 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.