1019 Winder Dr · Bristol, PA 19007

$259,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1953 8,640 sqft lot $219/sqft · 22% below area Est $333k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors! This home is ready for your personal touch. With opportunities to do a light renovation and keep as a rental or do a full rehab and sell for a profit! Showings are limited please call selling agent for availability!

Key facts

• 8,640 sq ft lot
• Built 1953
• Listed 68 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#546 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Bristol Township SD (suburban): math 16% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #471 of 539 in PA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Benjamin Franklin Ms (math 5% / reading 30%, grade F, #455 of 512 statewide, top 89%, 729 students, 100% FRL); Truman Shs (math 52% / reading 10%, grade F, #340 of 437 statewide, top 78%, 1,670 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 49% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,841 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.15%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,223
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -22.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3804 Weston Ave	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,134 (-4%)	1mo	$335,000	$295	85
511 Park Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-3%)	4mo	$385,000	$334	66
3517 Dixon Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,294 (+9%)	5mo	$362,500	$280	66
3525 Rockview Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-8%)	2mo	$375,000	$343	65
220 Western Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,242 (+4%)	6mo	$345,000	$278	65
316 Newport Rd	0.54mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+1%)	2mo	$206,000	$172	64
913 Fairview Ave	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,244 (+5%)	8mo	$298,000	$240	60
3525 Dixon Ave	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,294 (+9%)	8mo	$329,900	$255	60
3517 Rockview Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,294 (+9%)	8mo	$357,000	$276	54
2915 Lawnton Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,341 (+13%)	4mo	$370,000	$276	48
2936 Penn Valley Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,012 (-15%)	3mo	$370,000	$366	46
702 Fairview Ave	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,344 (+13%)	8mo	$399,900	$298	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-50,368
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-54,344
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19007

• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,148 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$356 /mo · $4,277/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,313

Max offer price $236,864

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-57	+0% $-130	+5% $-204	+10% $-278
Rent	-10% $-300	-5% $-215	+0% $-130	+5% $-46	+10% $39
Rate	-1.0pp $0	-0.5pp $-64	base $-130	+0.5pp $-198	+1.0pp $-266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
523 Locust St Bristol, PA	3.0	1.0	1148	$1,925	$1.68	26d	1	0.89mi
1416 Ashby Ave Bristol, PA	3.0	1.0	1050	$2,300	$2.19	0d	1	1.22mi
115 Cedar St Unit 1 Bristol, PA	2.0	1.0	760	$1,850	$2.43	45d	1	1.29mi
234 Franklin St Unit 1st Floor Bristol, PA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	7d	1	1.35mi
1100 Newportville Rd Croydon, PA	2.0	1.0	705	$1,830	$2.60	0d	30	1.39mi
5525 Schumacher Dr Bristol, PA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,595	$1.88	6d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $259,900 Pending 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $259,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   price $259,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $265,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $265,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-03-26
   listed $265,000 Active 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   Calling all investors! This home is ready for your personal touch. With opportunities to do a light renovation and keep as a rental or do a full rehab and sell for a profit! Showings are limited please call selling agent for availability!

7. 2006-08-03
   soldstatus $180,000
8. 2006-07-11
   soldstatus $180,000 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   Move right in to this beautifully rehabbed home! Smoke free and pet free! New sage color siding, new windows (2003), updated kitchen in 2003, hardwood floors through out, newer carpet in upper bedroom, newer roof, brand new furnace, and freshly painted through out! Vaulted ceilings upstairs. PLENTY of close space! HUGE front and back yards completely fenced in! Clean and well kept! Full basement! Pictures do not do this home justice! Come, see, and fall in love!

9. 2006-05-04
   listed $180,000 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   Move right in to this beautifully rehabbed home! Smoke free and pet free! New sage color siding, new windows (2003), updated kitchen in 2003, hardwood floors through out, newer carpet in upper bedroom, newer roof, brand new furnace, and freshly painted through out! Vaulted ceilings upstairs. PLENTY of close space! HUGE front and back yards completely fenced in! Clean and well kept! Full basement! Pictures do not do this home justice! Come, see, and fall in love!

10. 1999-03-30
    soldstatus $70,000
11. 1999-03-19
    soldstatus $70,000
12. 1998-10-15
    historical
13. 1998-10-05
    listed $70,000
14. 1998-05-27
    listed $65,950
15. 1998-04-30
    historical
16. 1998-03-28
    listed $64,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,277 · $356/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,277 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$4,277
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,062
• − Management: −$2,062
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$6,040
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,450
• After-tax cash flow: $-115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bristol Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4204230
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $57,219
• Composite: 21.04/100
• National rank: #8451
• State rank: #471 of 539 in PA

Livability — Bristol

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #546
• US rank: #5093

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bucks County · 506,477 people
• City population: 21,800
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 21,800
• Household income: $65,511
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 808.0

Population outlook (Bucks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 630,973 people
• By 2030: 627,093 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 609,680 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 584,225 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 539,840 · -14.4%
• By 2100: 483,970 · -23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 14% Two or more races 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Swiss 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bucks

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -0.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.1 2020: D+4.4 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+1.2 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.79%
• Current HPI: 307.0709
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+308.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $265,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-11 Sold (MLS) $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-05-04 Listed $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1999-03-19 Sold (MLS) $70,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-10-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-10-05 Listed $70,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-05-27 Listed $65,950 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-04-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-03-28 Listed $64,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,277 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.