222 Shagbark Trl

Somerville, AL 35670

$215,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,519 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,131/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-367/mo
• Annual: $-4,406/yr
• Cap rate: 4.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.32%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (30.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (47.4% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (47.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#319 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Morgan County (rural): math 19% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 129 in AL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Priceville Elementary School (math 38% / reading 67%, grade C-, #101 of 627 statewide, top 16%, 667 students, 39% FRL); Priceville Junior High School (math 30% / reading 58%, grade D, #42 of 257 statewide, top 17%, 528 students, 40% FRL); Priceville High School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #28 of 305 statewide, top 10%, 512 students, 37% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 31% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Morgan County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 231 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morgan County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.6% in Somerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.