222 Shagbark Trl · Somerville, AL 35670

$215,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,519 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1992 0.60 ac lot $142/sqft · 24% below area Est $253k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home in the country to this well-maintained family home located in the Priceville Schools district! Enjoy water? It is less than one mile to the nearest boat launch. New roof with a transferable warranty. New flooring throughout the home. New hot water heater. Recessed lighting added within the last two years. All new updated power outlets and light switches throughout the home. Large trees in the back of the property have been removed. Call today to see this home.

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Built 1992
• Listed 46 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From Hwy 67, left on Bluff City Road, left onto Shagbark; house on right
• HOA & community: No community association; Subdivision: Rivermont Oaks; Community curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Built in 1992; Living area approximately 1,365 square feet
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Curb and gutter; Covered porch; Front porch; Deck; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (30.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (47.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (47.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.6% in Somerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#319 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Morgan County (rural): math 19% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 129 in AL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Priceville Elementary School (math 38% / reading 67%, grade C-, #101 of 627 statewide, top 16%, 667 students, 39% FRL); Priceville Junior High School (math 30% / reading 58%, grade D, #42 of 257 statewide, top 17%, 528 students, 40% FRL); Priceville High School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #28 of 305 statewide, top 10%, 512 students, 37% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 31% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Morgan County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 231 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Morgan County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,133 (47.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.32%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,074
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -15.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
63 Terry Lynn Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-4%)	14mo	$258,000	$177	67
391 Shagbark Trl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+9%)	6mo	$233,000	$141	62
150 Rivermont Bnd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-4%)	12mo	$244,000	$167	56
136 Rivermont Bnd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-4%)	16mo	$250,000	$171	54
6 Greystone Pl	0.70mi	3/3.0	1,706 (+12%)	16mo	$270,000	$158	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $51,823
• Equity at exit: $149,260

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $167,857
• Equity at exit: $283,772

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35670

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,131 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $527/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,596

Max offer price $150,133

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-245	-5% $-306	+0% $-367	+5% $-428	+10% $-489
Rent	-10% $-457	-5% $-412	+0% $-367	+5% $-323	+10% $-278
Rate	-1.0pp $-259	-0.5pp $-313	base $-367	+0.5pp $-423	+1.0pp $-480

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $215,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $215,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $260,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $260,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $260,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $260,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $260,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $260,000 Active 703-char remark
17. 2024-06-04
    soldstatus $235,000
18. 2024-06-03
    soldstatus $235,000 Sold 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    Welcome home in the country to this well-maintained family home located in the Priceville Schools district! Enjoy water? It is less than one mile to the nearest boat launch. New roof with a transferable warranty. New flooring throughout the home. New hot water heater. Recessed lighting added within the last two years. All new updated power outlets and light switches throughout the home. Large trees in the back of the property have been removed. Call today to see this home.

19. 2024-05-01
    status Pending 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    Welcome home in the country to this well-maintained family home located in the Priceville Schools district! Enjoy water? It is less than one mile to the nearest boat launch. New roof with a transferable warranty. New flooring throughout the home. New hot water heater. Recessed lighting added within the last two years. All new updated power outlets and light switches throughout the home. Large trees in the back of the property have been removed. Call today to see this home.

20. 2024-04-29
    listed $234,900 Active 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    Welcome home in the country to this well-maintained family home located in the Priceville Schools district! Enjoy water? It is less than one mile to the nearest boat launch. New roof with a transferable warranty. New flooring throughout the home. New hot water heater. Recessed lighting added within the last two years. All new updated power outlets and light switches throughout the home. Large trees in the back of the property have been removed. Call today to see this home.

21. 2021-12-20
    soldstatus $173,500
22. 2021-12-15
    soldstatus $173,500 Sold

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    Bring your boat and enjoy this 3 bed 2 bath in Priceville School District. Low traffic street , boat launch less than a mile away. Free standing gas fireplace. Low Maintenance vinyl siding.

23. 2021-10-31
    historical Contingent

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    Bring your boat and enjoy this 3 bed 2 bath in Priceville School District. Low traffic street , boat launch less than a mile away. Free standing gas fireplace. Low Maintenance vinyl siding.

24. 2021-10-26
    listed $159,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    Bring your boat and enjoy this 3 bed 2 bath in Priceville School District. Low traffic street , boat launch less than a mile away. Free standing gas fireplace. Low Maintenance vinyl siding.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $527 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $882 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$355/yr (+$30/mo · 67.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$527
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,086
• − Management: −$1,086
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$8,496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,039
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morgan County
• NCES district ID: 0102480
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,362
• Composite: 26.68/100
• National rank: #7157
• State rank: #61 of 129 in AL

Livability — Somerville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #19697

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,116

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,775 people
• By 2030: 116,979 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 111,800 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 105,181 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 87,736 · -26.1%
• By 2100: 67,624 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.6) · D 23.2% · R 75.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -52.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.6 2020: R+49.2 2016: R+52.4 2012: R+44.5 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.02%
• Current HPI: 244.71
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+34.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $215,000 VMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $260,000 VMLS
• 2024-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-03 Sold (MLS) $235,000 VMLS
• 2024-05-01 Pending — VMLS
• 2024-04-29 Listed $234,900 VMLS
• 2021-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $173,500 Public Records
• 2021-12-15 Sold (MLS) $173,500 VMLS
• 2021-10-31 Contingent — VMLS
• 2021-10-26 Listed $159,900 VMLS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $527 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.