170 NE 19th Ave

Rockaway Beach, OR 97136

$449,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 275 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax + insurance: −$1,176
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,260
• Net cashflow: $1,204/mo
• Annual: $14,452/yr
• Cap rate: 10.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.54%
• DSCR: 1.69
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $125,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $450k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $450k).
• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $396k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#94 in OR, #4,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56 (rural): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #62 of 183 in OR (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nehalem Elementary School (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #169 of 412 statewide, top 44%, 165 students, 38% FRL); Neah-Kah-Nie Middle School (math 24% / reading 57%, grade F, #41 of 128 statewide, top 32%, 177 students, 44% FRL); Neah-Kah-Nie High School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #32 of 143 statewide, top 34%, 280 students, 35% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 5.9% in Rockaway Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,000/mo this rent would consume 112% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Visible damage and potential leaks in the independent satellite image.
• Major: siding — Visible damage and peeling paint in the independent satellite image.
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and lack of landscaping in the independent satellite image.