170 NE 19th Ave · Rockaway Beach, OR 97136

$449,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · Land · 275 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 2,613 sqft lot $312/sqft · 30% below area Est $641k · 30% under ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*** AMAZING MANHATTAN BEACH LOCATION 2 BLOCKS FROM THE BEACH *** Here is your chance to build at the back of a dead end street for a little bit of seclusion at an affordable price. The seller had the house plans drawn up specifically for this lot. According to the city the water and sewer are available in the street. This is a prime opportunity! A variance will be required as well as building above the floodplain. Don't miss out. Hurry quick before this great lot in a great location is gone!!!

Key facts

• New construction
• Close to the beach
• Dead end street

Tags

• MANHATTAN BEACH LOCATION
• PRIVATE LOCATION
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• DEAD END STREET
• CLOSE TO THE BEACH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $450k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $450k).
• Recommended offer: $396k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 5.9% in Rockaway Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#94 in OR, #4,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56 (rural): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #62 of 183 in OR (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nehalem Elementary School (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #169 of 412 statewide, top 44%, 165 students, 38% FRL); Neah-Kah-Nie Middle School (math 24% / reading 57%, grade F, #41 of 128 statewide, top 32%, 177 students, 44% FRL); Neah-Kah-Nie High School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #32 of 143 statewide, top 34%, 280 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,000/mo this rent would consume 112% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $395,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.54%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $640,714
• List price: $449,900
• Delta: -29.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
325 N Juniper Ct	1.07mi	3/2.0	1,542 (+7%)	0mo	$544,000	$353	54
1026 NE 13th Ave	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,109 (-23%)	3mo	$410,000	$370	53
633 N Pacific St	0.84mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,514 (+5%)	5mo	$795,000	$525	48
25780 Beach Dr	0.87mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (+7%)	4mo	$625,000	$404	44
131 S Palisades St	1.33mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	6mo	$370,000	$285	43
115 N Miller St Unit 303 I	1.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-9%)	4mo	$43,250	$33	42
26484 Kittiwake Dr	1.36mi	3/3.0	1,584 (+10%)	4mo	$518,500	$327	42
115 N Miller St #103	1.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-9%)	5mo	$32,000	$24	41
115 N Miller St Unit 103 I	1.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-9%)	5mo	$32,000	$24	41
26534 Chieftain Dr	1.35mi	3/2.0	1,145 (-21%)	5mo	$499,000	$436	36
711 N 6th St	0.82mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,128 (-22%)	4mo	$700,000	$621	31
711 N 6th Ave	0.84mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,752 (+21%)	4mo	$700,000	$400	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $4,152
• Equity at exit: $67,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $103,815
• Equity at exit: $38,899

Cash invested: $125,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97136

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$562 /mo · $6,748/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,260
• Net cashflow: $1,204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,476

Max offer price $449,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,515	-5% $1,360	+0% $1,204	+5% $1,049	+10% $893
Rent	-10% $730	-5% $967	+0% $1,204	+5% $1,441	+10% $1,678
Rate	-1.0pp $1,431	-0.5pp $1,319	base $1,204	+0.5pp $1,088	+1.0pp $969

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,475
• Closing costs: $13,497
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
145 N Dolphin St Rockaway Beach, OR	2.0	2.0	1020	$6,000	$5.88	93d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $449,900 Active 275 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $449,900 Active 274 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $449,900 Active 273 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $449,900 Active 272 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $449,900 Active 271 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $449,900 Active 270 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $449,900 Active 267 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $449,900 Active 265 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $449,900 Active 263 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $449,900 Active 261 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $449,900 Active 260 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $449,900 Active 259 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $449,900 Active 258 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $449,900 Active 257 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $449,900 Active 256 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $449,900 Active 254 DOM
17. 2026-07-17
    days on market $449,900 Active 252 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $449,900 Active 251 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $449,900 Active 250 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $449,900 Active 249 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $449,900 Active 248 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $449,900 Active 247 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $449,900 Active 246 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $449,900 Active 245 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $449,900 Active 243 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $449,900 Active 242 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $449,900 Active 241 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $449,900 Active 240 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $449,900 Active 239 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $449,900 Active 238 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $449,900 Active 237 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $449,900 Active 236 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $449,900 Active 235 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $449,900 Active 234 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $449,900 Active 233 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $449,900 Active 232 DOM
37. 2026-06-23
    days on market $449,900 Active 228 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $449,900 Active 227 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $449,900 Active 226 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $449,900 Active 224 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $449,900 Active 223 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $449,900 Active 222 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $449,900 Active 221 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $449,900 Active 219 DOM
45. 2026-06-12
    days on market $449,900 Active 218 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $449,900 Active 215 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $449,900 Active 214 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $449,900 Active 213 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $449,900 Active 212 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $449,900 Active 209 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥76°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,201
• − Property taxes: −$6,748
• − Insurance: −$7,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,760
• − Management: −$5,760
• − Depreciation: −$13,088
• Taxable income: $8,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,938
• After-tax cash flow: $12,514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $72,200–$129,960 screening

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, siding, and landscaping. Immediate action is needed to improve the home's condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Visible damage and potential leaks in the independent satellite image.
• Major siding — Visible damage and peeling paint in the independent satellite image.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and lack of landscaping in the independent satellite image.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New roof — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Resale New siding — New siding will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 43/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Nehalem Elementary School F OR #169/412 Nat'l #19,513/41,679 Middle Neah-Kah-Nie Middle School F OR #41/128 Nat'l #5,867/14,009 High Neah-Kah-Nie High School D+ OR #32/143 Nat'l #5,489/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56
• NCES district ID: 4108650
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,437
• Composite: 41.68/100
• National rank: #7205
• State rank: #62 of 183 in OR

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Rockaway Beach

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #4777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockaway Beach, OR
• County: Tillamook · 26,318 people
• Population (ZIP): 2,422
• Household income: $64,286
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Tillamook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,318 people
• By 2030: 26,603 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 26,898 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 27,129 · +3.1%
• By 2075: 27,858 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 26,212 · -0.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Tillamook

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 49.2% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+5.9 2012: D+4.7 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.02%
• Current HPI: 228.3227
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-42.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $39,900 RMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $45,000 RMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $449,900 RMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $449,900 RMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $45,000 RMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $45,000 RMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $49,900 RMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $49,900 RMLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $449,900 RMLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $449,900 RMLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $49,900 RMLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $49,900 RMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $465,000 RMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $59,900 RMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $69,900 RMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $338 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.