189 Buffalo St

Hamburg, NY 14075

$315,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,981 sqft · Built 1940 · MultiFamily · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,969/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$525
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$833
• Net cashflow: $959/mo
• Annual: $11,503/yr
• Cap rate: 9.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.04%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $959 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $315k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $306k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#43 in NY, #692 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Hamburg Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #267 of 590 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Union Pleasant Avenue Elementary School (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #1,415 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 643 students, 23% FRL); Hamburg Middle School (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D+, #315 of 729 statewide, top 45%, 755 students, 24% FRL); Hamburg High School (math 94% / reading 97%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 987 students, 19% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.4% in Hamburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,969/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 824% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.