2633 Old Trail Rd

Susquehanna, PA 17045

$119,900F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 500 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 177 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $828/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $-100/mo
• Annual: $-1,199/yr
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (31.0% below list).
• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $83k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Juniata County SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #423 of 539 in PA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tuscarora Ms (math 17% / reading 38%, grade F, #399 of 512 statewide, top 79%, 312 students, 51% FRL); East Juniata Jshs (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #265 of 437 statewide, top 63%, 406 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 34% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 46 units permitted in Juniata County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Juniata County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.