2633 Old Trail Rd · Susquehanna, PA 17045

$119,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured public records · 177 Days on market

Built 1973 0.53 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2633 Old Trail Rd in Liverpool, PA—a 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath mobile home with thoughtful additions, situated on a spacious . 53-acre lot. This inviting property features a large attached 1-car garage for convenient parking and storage, along with a dedicated laundry room to simplify daily chores. Step onto the covered front porch for a warm welcome, or relax on the rear deck that opens up to a generous backyard, perfect for outdoor gatherings or gardening. Additional outdoor amenities include a handy storage shed for all your tools and equipment. Ideally located with easy access to Rt 11/15, this home is just 40 minutes from Harrisburg, PA, and less than 20 minutes to Selinsgrove, offering a peaceful rural setting with quick connectivity to nearby amenities and urban conveniences.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Rear deck
• Handy storage shed

Tags

• LARGE ATTACHED GARAGE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• REAR DECK
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• HANDY STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (31.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $83k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Juniata County SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #423 of 539 in PA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 46 units permitted in Juniata County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Juniata County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,780 (31.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-25,824
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-30,815
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17045

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $828 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $901/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $102,255

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-32	-5% $-66	+0% $-100	+5% $-134	+10% $-168
Rent	-10% $-165	-5% $-133	+0% $-100	+5% $-67	+10% $-34
Rate	-1.0pp $-40	-0.5pp $-69	base $-100	+0.5pp $-131	+1.0pp $-163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 174 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 173 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 165 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 164 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,900 Active 159 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 158 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 157 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 156 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    price $119,900 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    Welcome to 2633 Old Trail Rd in Liverpool, PA—a 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath mobile home with thoughtful additions, situated on a spacious . 53-acre lot. This inviting property features a large attached 1-car garage for convenient parking and storage, along with a dedicated laundry room to simplify daily chores. Step onto the covered front porch for a warm welcome, or relax on the rear deck that opens up to a generous backyard, perfect for outdoor gatherings or gardening. Additional outdoor amenities include a handy storage shed for all your tools and equipment. Ideally located with easy access to Rt 11/15, this home is just 40 minutes from Harrisburg, PA, and less than 20 minutes to Selinsgrove, offering a peaceful rural setting with quick connectivity to nearby amenities and urban conveniences.

18. 2025-12-26
    listed $124,900 Active 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    Welcome to 2633 Old Trail Rd in Liverpool, PA—a 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath mobile home with thoughtful additions, situated on a spacious . 53-acre lot. This inviting property features a large attached 1-car garage for convenient parking and storage, along with a dedicated laundry room to simplify daily chores. Step onto the covered front porch for a warm welcome, or relax on the rear deck that opens up to a generous backyard, perfect for outdoor gatherings or gardening. Additional outdoor amenities include a handy storage shed for all your tools and equipment. Ideally located with easy access to Rt 11/15, this home is just 40 minutes from Harrisburg, PA, and less than 20 minutes to Selinsgrove, offering a peaceful rural setting with quick connectivity to nearby amenities and urban conveniences.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $901 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,398 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$496/yr (+$41/mo · 55.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$901
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$795
• − Management: −$795
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$3,361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$807
• After-tax cash flow: $-392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Juniata County SD
• NCES district ID: 4212600
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,589
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6591
• State rank: #423 of 539 in PA

Livability — Susquehanna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,964

Population outlook (Juniata County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,489 people
• By 2030: 24,022 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 22,520 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 20,382 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 15,680 · -36.0%
• By 2100: 11,150 · -54.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Polish 5% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Juniata

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: -35.2pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+61.8 2012: R+45.2 2008: R+35.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.20%
• Current HPI: 144.3326
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $119,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-26 Listed $124,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $901 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.