14175 Shenandoah Rd

Timbercreek Canyon, TX 79118

$219,995C-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,186/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$367
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $207/mo
• Annual: $2,478/yr
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.02%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $61,599

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (0.6% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#697 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Randall H S (math 43% / reading 64%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,148 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.