14175 Shenandoah Rd · Timbercreek Canyon, TX 79118

$219,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1978 0.81 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW WELL: Fall 2025! Looking for space to breathe; space to build a barn/shop and location for a mini-homestead? This double-wide, 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home on nearly an acre just outside of Amarillo is larger than what meets the eyes! Completely remodeled from the studs up, this property offers all new plumbing, electrical and HVAC for total peace of mind. The chef's kitchen is a showstopper -- featuring a Z-Line 6-burner gas stove, gold sink and faucet, new cabinetry and quartz countertops perfect for entertaining. Enjoy the security of a new roof, siding and exterior paint (2025). Outside, you'll love the fenced yard, covered parking and quiet cul-de-sac location -- ideal for enjoying tha

Key facts

• New plumbing
• Completely remodeled
• New hvac

Tags

• COMPLETELY REMODELED
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• NEW HVAC
• Z-LINE 6-BURNER GAS STOVE
• GOLD SINK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car); Has carport; RV access/Parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; North-facing; One level
• Construction: Double wide mobile home (manufactured); Frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Chain link and wire fencing; Located on a cul-de-sac; RV access/parking; Additional detached parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Range, Dishwasher, Refrigerator, Electric water heater; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#697 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Randall H S (math 43% / reading 64%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,148 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,695 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.02%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-16,781
• Equity at exit: $32,802

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $27,009
• Equity at exit: $19,021

Cash invested: $61,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79118

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 276
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,186 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,924

Max offer price $219,995

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,999
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $219,995 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $224,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,900 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $224,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $224,900 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-05-22
    listed $224,900 Active
19. 2026-02-20
    price $219,900
20. 2023-11-22
    soldstatus
21. 2023-08-04
    soldstatus
22. 2015-07-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$1,089
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$261
• After-tax cash flow: $2,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canyon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812810
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,177
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1912
• State rank: #78 of 826 in TX

Livability — Timbercreek Canyon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #697
• US rank: #13032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Randall County · 137,351 people
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,107
• Household income: $87,810
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 367.0

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.59%
• Current HPI: 162.5206
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.52%
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $224,900 AARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $219,900 AARMLS
• 2023-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $255 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.