3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,010 sqft ·
Built 1968
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 208 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,503/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$393
Tax + insurance
−$169
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$316
Net cashflow
$626/mo
Annual
$7,514/yr
Cap rate
16.32%
Cash-on-cash
35.83%
DSCR
2.59
1% rule
2.01%
Cash to close
$20,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $626 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $8k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Niblack Elementary School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 282 students, 88% FRL); Columbia High School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 1,737 students, 50% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 54% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Columbia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: Exposed subfloor
— Structural damage
Major: Missing cabinets
— Aesthetics and functionality
Major: Damaged ceiling
— Structural integrity
CashFlowRE · CFR-WBVCH23X2695SS
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29