3706 Abercrombie Ln

Stillwater, MN 55082

$269,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · Built 2003 · Condo · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,427/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$393
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-241/mo
• Annual: $-2,895/yr
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.83%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-241 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (10.1% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $227k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#19 in MN, #547 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Stillwater Area Public School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #54 of 301 in MN (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Stonebridge Elementary (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #320 of 857 statewide, top 41%, 421 students, 17% FRL); Stillwater Middle School (math 54% / reading 60%, grade B, #36 of 258 statewide, top 14%, 906 students, 20% FRL); Stillwater Area High School (math 57% / reading 66%, grade B-, #39 of 471 statewide, top 9%, 2,647 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.4% in Stillwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.