3706 Abercrombie Ln · Stillwater, MN 55082

$269,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · Condo public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2003 $393/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic opportunity in the high-demand Settlers Glen neighborhood! Features include a main floor bedroom, spacious living room with fireplace, open floor plan and main floor 3/4 bath. The kitchen offers breakfast bar, and plenty of counter and cabinet space. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms (one with a large walk-in closet) and full bath. Enjoy relaxing on the 12 x 8 deck! Enjoy this highly convenient location just minutes away from the Gateway Trail, walking paths, parks, golf courses, shopping and so much more. Easy highway access to the Twin Cities.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Fresh paint
• New light fixtures

Tags

• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW WASHER
• UPDATED MAIN-LEVEL BATH
• MOVE-IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-241 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.4% in Stillwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#19 in MN, #547 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Stillwater Area Public School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #54 of 301 in MN (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Stonebridge Elementary (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #320 of 857 statewide, top 41%, 421 students, 17% FRL); Stillwater Middle School (math 54% / reading 60%, grade B, #36 of 258 statewide, top 14%, 906 students, 20% FRL); Stillwater Area High School (math 57% / reading 66%, grade B-, #39 of 471 statewide, top 9%, 2,647 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $227,289 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.83%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-58,784
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-69,689
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55082

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$393
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,732

Max offer price $227,289

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-88	-5% $-165	+0% $-241	+5% $-318	+10% $-394
Rent	-10% $-433	-5% $-337	+0% $-241	+5% $-145	+10% $-50
Rate	-1.0pp $-105	-0.5pp $-173	base $-241	+0.5pp $-311	+1.0pp $-382

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3634 White Pine Way Unit 3634 WPW Stillwater, MN	3.0	2.5	1828	$2,650	$1.45	0d	1	0.74mi
105 Bridgewater Way Stillwater, MN	1.0	1.0–1.5	798	$3,057	$3.83	17d	10	0.91mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $393 · $4,716/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-04
   listed $269,900 Active
4. 2023-07-11
   soldstatus $272,000
5. 2023-06-30
   soldstatus $272,000 Sold 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   Fantastic opportunity in the high-demand Settlers Glen neighborhood! Features include a main floor bedroom, spacious living room with fireplace, open floor plan and main floor 3/4 bath. The kitchen offers breakfast bar, and plenty of counter and cabinet space. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms (one with a large walk-in closet) and full bath. Enjoy relaxing on the 12 x 8 deck! Enjoy this highly convenient location just minutes away from the Gateway Trail, walking paths, parks, golf courses, shopping and so much more. Easy highway access to the Twin Cities.

6. 2023-05-16
   status Pending 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   Fantastic opportunity in the high-demand Settlers Glen neighborhood! Features include a main floor bedroom, spacious living room with fireplace, open floor plan and main floor 3/4 bath. The kitchen offers breakfast bar, and plenty of counter and cabinet space. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms (one with a large walk-in closet) and full bath. Enjoy relaxing on the 12 x 8 deck! Enjoy this highly convenient location just minutes away from the Gateway Trail, walking paths, parks, golf courses, shopping and so much more. Easy highway access to the Twin Cities.

7. 2023-04-26
   historical Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   Fantastic opportunity in the high-demand Settlers Glen neighborhood! Features include a main floor bedroom, spacious living room with fireplace, open floor plan and main floor 3/4 bath. The kitchen offers breakfast bar, and plenty of counter and cabinet space. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms (one with a large walk-in closet) and full bath. Enjoy relaxing on the 12 x 8 deck! Enjoy this highly convenient location just minutes away from the Gateway Trail, walking paths, parks, golf courses, shopping and so much more. Easy highway access to the Twin Cities.

8. 2023-04-22
   listed $273,500 Active 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   Fantastic opportunity in the high-demand Settlers Glen neighborhood! Features include a main floor bedroom, spacious living room with fireplace, open floor plan and main floor 3/4 bath. The kitchen offers breakfast bar, and plenty of counter and cabinet space. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms (one with a large walk-in closet) and full bath. Enjoy relaxing on the 12 x 8 deck! Enjoy this highly convenient location just minutes away from the Gateway Trail, walking paths, parks, golf courses, shopping and so much more. Easy highway access to the Twin Cities.

9. 2023-04-21
   historical $273,500 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   Fantastic opportunity in the high-demand Settlers Glen neighborhood! Features include a main floor bedroom, spacious living room with fireplace, open floor plan and main floor 3/4 bath. The kitchen offers breakfast bar, and plenty of counter and cabinet space. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms (one with a large walk-in closet) and full bath. Enjoy relaxing on the 12 x 8 deck! Enjoy this highly convenient location just minutes away from the Gateway Trail, walking paths, parks, golf courses, shopping and so much more. Easy highway access to the Twin Cities.

10. 2014-01-13
    soldstatus $128,500
11. 2014-01-10
    soldstatus $128,500 Sold 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    Fabulous townhome with 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, warm modern colors, close to walking paths, shopping and parks,. Kitchen with Maple cabinets, Deck for summer nights

12. 2014-01-07
    status Pending 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    Fabulous townhome with 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, warm modern colors, close to walking paths, shopping and parks,. Kitchen with Maple cabinets, Deck for summer nights

13. 2013-12-26
    status Active 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    Fabulous townhome with 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, warm modern colors, close to walking paths, shopping and parks,. Kitchen with Maple cabinets, Deck for summer nights

14. 2013-12-03
    historical Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    Fabulous townhome with 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, warm modern colors, close to walking paths, shopping and parks,. Kitchen with Maple cabinets, Deck for summer nights

15. 2013-11-27
    status Pending 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    Fabulous townhome with 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, warm modern colors, close to walking paths, shopping and parks,. Kitchen with Maple cabinets, Deck for summer nights

16. 2013-11-11
    price $135,000 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    Fabulous townhome with 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, warm modern colors, close to walking paths, shopping and parks,. Kitchen with Maple cabinets, Deck for summer nights

17. 2013-10-08
    price $140,000 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    Fabulous townhome with 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, warm modern colors, close to walking paths, shopping and parks,. Kitchen with Maple cabinets, Deck for summer nights

18. 2013-09-07
    listed $145,000 Active 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    Fabulous townhome with 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, warm modern colors, close to walking paths, shopping and parks,. Kitchen with Maple cabinets, Deck for summer nights

19. 2013-06-16
    historical
20. 2012-06-06
    listed $144,500
21. 2012-05-14
    historical
22. 2011-12-21
    listed $145,000
23. 2011-12-20
    historical
24. 2011-06-20
    listed $145,000
25. 2008-02-08
    soldstatus $178,000
26. 2008-01-25
    soldstatus $178,000
27. 2007-11-28
    historical
28. 2007-08-27
    listed $177,000
29. 2004-09-05
    historical
30. 2004-04-30
    soldstatus $192,673
31. 2004-04-30
    soldstatus $192,673
32. 2004-03-30
    listed $193,403

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,848 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,935 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: +$87/yr (+$7/mo · 3.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,329
• − Management: −$2,329
• − HOA: −$4,716
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$7,424
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,782
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stillwater Area Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2738190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $84,438
• Composite: 49.8/100
• National rank: #1954
• State rank: #54 of 301 in MN

Livability — Stillwater

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #547

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stillwater, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 36,277
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 36,277
• Household income: $115,040
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 723.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -395.99%
• Current HPI: 241.3998
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+39.6% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Listed $269,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $272,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-30 Sold (MLS) $272,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-16 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-26 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-22 Listed $273,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-21 Coming Soon $273,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $128,500 Public Records
• 2014-01-10 Sold (MLS) $128,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-07 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-26 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-03 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-27 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-11 Price Changed $135,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-08 Price Changed $140,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-07 Listed $145,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-16 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-06 Listed $144,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-21 Listed $145,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-20 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-20 Listed $145,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $178,000 Public Records
• 2008-01-25 Sold (MLS) $178,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-28 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-27 Listed $177,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $192,673 Public Records
• 2004-04-30 Sold (MLS) $192,673 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-30 Listed $193,403 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,848 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.