5227 Celestial Ct

Manvel, TX 77583

$255,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · Built 2025 · Townhouse · Active · 171 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,323/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$425
• HOA: −$111
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-461/yr
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-461/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (8.9% below list).
• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.5% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.