Is 5227 Celestial Ct in Manvel, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 6.1% cap rate and $-38/mo modeled cash flow at a $255,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 5227 Celestial Ct?

The modeled cap rate is 6.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,323/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 44.83

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +12.5/30.0
ARV discount +10.7/15.0
1% rule +4.1/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.9/10.0
DSCR +3.7/10.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$255,000

5227 Celestial Ct · Manvel, TX 77583

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · Townhouse · 171 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 3,518 sqft lot $187/sqft · 7% below area Est $274k · 7% under $111/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

One-story | 2 bedrooms | 2 baths | flex room | 1-car attached garage * * Photos are representative, selections & features may vary with community * * Common areas include open family room, kitchen and a casual dining area. Main suite with double sinks and walk-in closet. Flexible space can function as a game room, study or exercise area. Utility room just off entry foyer.

Key facts

Island kitchen
Walk-in closet
Covered patio

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-461/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (2.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (8.9% below list).
Recommended offer: $224k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.5% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.91% ✗
Cap rate: 6.11%
Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
DSCR: 0.97
GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $274,367
List price: $255,000
Delta: -7.06%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5231 Celestial Ct	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,360 (-0%)	2mo	$267,015	$196	97
5235 Celestial Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,446 (+6%)	2mo	$274,990	$190	81
5251 Celestial Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,446 (+6%)	2mo	$274,990	$190	81
5226 Big Dipper Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,446 (+6%)	2mo	$270,000	$187	79
10015 Crescendo Way	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,360 (-0%)	21mo	$268,240	$197	73
5255 Celestial Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,508 (+10%)	4mo	$284,990	$189	72
5246 Big Dipper Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,508 (+10%)	4mo	$275,990	$183	70
10115 Crescendo Way	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,446 (+6%)	5mo	$274,000	$189	69
10119 Crescendo Way	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,508 (+10%)	5mo	$280,000	$186	61
10035 Crescendo Way	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,446 (+6%)	20mo	$260,000	$180	59
10027 Crescendo Way	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,446 (+6%)	22mo	$277,865	$192	58
10019 Crescendo Way	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,446 (+6%)	22mo	$278,790	$193	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -20.4%
Equity multiple: 0.31×
Total profit: $-49,496
Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

IRR: -21.0%
Equity multiple: 0.04×
Total profit: $-68,570
Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 8 active · 6 under contract
Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $269,495 ($189/sqft)
Median days on market: 178 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +6.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

Rents YoY: 0.4%
Active inventory: 1445
Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,323 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
Tax est. 1.5%: −$319 /mo · $3,825/yr
Insurance: −$106
HOA: −$111
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,371

Max offer price $249,446

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $50	+0% $-38	+5% $-126	+10% $-215
Rent	-10% $-222	-5% $-130	+0% $-38	+5% $53	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $90	-0.5pp $26	base $-38	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $63,750
Closing costs: $7,650
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10035 Crescendo Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,275	$1.57	23d	1	0.17mi
4143 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	93d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $255,000 Active 171 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $255,000 Active 169 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $255,000 Active 168 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $255,000 Active 167 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $255,000 Active 166 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $255,000 Active 163 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $255,000 Active 161 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $255,000 Active 160 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $255,000 Active 158 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $255,000 Active 156 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $255,000 Active 155 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $255,000 Active 154 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $255,000 Active 153 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $255,000 Active 152 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $255,000 Active 150 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $255,000 Active 149 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $255,000 Active 148 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $255,000 Active 147 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $255,000 Active 146 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $255,000 Active 145 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $255,000 Active 144 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $255,000 Active 143 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $255,000 Active 142 DOM
2026-07-09

pricedays on market $255,000 Active 141 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $265,440 Active 139 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $265,440 Active 138 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $265,440 Active 137 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $265,440 Active 136 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $265,440 Active 135 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $265,440 Active 134 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $265,440 Active 133 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $265,440 Active 132 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $265,440 Active 131 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $265,440 Active 130 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $265,440 Active 129 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $265,440 Active 128 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $265,440 Active 126 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $265,440 Active 124 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $265,440 Active 123 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $265,440 Active 120 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $265,440 Active 119 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $265,440 Active 118 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $265,440 Active 117 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $265,440 Active 115 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $265,440 Active 114 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $265,440 Active 111 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $265,440 Active 110 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $265,440 Active 109 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $265,440 Active 106 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $265,440 Active 105 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $27,871
− Mortgage interest: −$14,284
− Property taxes: −$3,825
− Insurance: −$1,275
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,230
− Management: −$2,230
− HOA: −$1,332
− Depreciation: −$7,418
Taxable loss: −$4,722

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,133
After-tax cash flow: $673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready townhouse is in excellent condition with a fresh paint job and new flooring, making it an ideal investment for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Improves curb appeal and water efficiency ↑
Both New flooring in bathrooms — Enhances aesthetics and durability ↑

Schools (NCES district)

District: Alvin ISD
NCES district ID: 4808090
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $66,740
Composite: 38.96/100
National rank: #4080
State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Manvel

Score: 67/100
State rank: #544
US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Manvel, TX
County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
City population: 30,210
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 52,747
Household income: $119,287
Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 420,414 people
By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
Current HPI: 198.6559
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

2026-05-15 Relisted — Zillow
2026-05-15 Price Changed $265,000 Zillow
2026-05-15 Delisted — Zillow
2026-04-30 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
2026-03-25 Price Changed $265,440 Zillow
2026-03-23 Price Changed $265,440 HARMLS
2026-03-22 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
2026-03-22 Price Changed $264,990 HARMLS
2026-02-18 Price Changed $265,440 HARMLS
2026-02-18 Listed $285,440 HARMLS
2026-02-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-02-11 Listed $265,440 Zillow
2026-02-02 Price Changed $265,440 HARMLS
2026-01-10 Price Changed $280,440 HARMLS
2025-12-08 Price Changed $285,440 HARMLS
2025-08-31 Listed $280,440 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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