5554 N Sauble Lake Dr

Sauble, MI 49644

$139,500C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$732
• Tax + insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $76/mo
• Annual: $910/yr
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.33%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $39,060

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($910/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (17.5% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($964 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 10 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $140k implies a 323% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.