5554 N Sauble Lake Dr · Sauble, MI 49644

$139,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1995 0.25 ac lot Est $192k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just in time for Summer! This 3 bedroom 2 bath ranch has open concept living, kitchen and dining with lots of natural sunlight, covered front porch, rear wood deck and a convenient wood shed. This home has deeded lake access to all 4 Sauble Lakes. The location is close to ORV Trail Systems, North Country Hiking Trail, 1000s of acres of public land and 100s of lakes, rivers and streams! The home updates include: vanity & toilet Bathroom 2021, living/dining room flooring in 2020, primary bath toilet in 2021, furnace & central air 2023, metal roof in 2019; septic pumped in 2022; new pressure tank for well in 2018, new light fixtures in 2023. The home has a nice sized open yard.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Wood shed
• Open concept living

Tags

• DEEDED LAKE ACCESS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• REAR WOOD DECK
• WOOD SHED
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built on a 0.25-acre lot (approx. 88 x 170)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Porch; Shed(s); Paved road access; Waterfront on Sauble Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living space)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($910/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($964 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $140k implies a 323% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $115,047 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.33%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,192
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7380 W White Birch Dr	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,152 (-8%)	8mo	$177,000	$154	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $80,743
• Equity at exit: $125,673

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $233,850
• Equity at exit: $271,018

Cash invested: $39,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49644

• Home prices YoY: 12.6%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$732
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $520/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,054

Max offer price $139,500

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,875
• Closing costs: $4,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,500 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,500 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,500 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,500 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,500 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,500 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,500 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $139,500 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $140,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,900 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,900 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-25
    listed $145,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (695 chars)

    Just in time for Summer! This 3 bedroom 2 bath ranch has open concept living, kitchen and dining with lots of natural sunlight, covered front porch, rear wood deck and a convenient wood shed. This home has deeded lake access to all 4 Sauble Lakes. The location is close to ORV Trail Systems, North Country Hiking Trail, 1000s of acres of public land and 100s of lakes, rivers and streams! The home updates include: vanity & toilet Bathroom 2021, living/dining room flooring in 2020, primary bath toilet in 2021, furnace & central air 2023, metal roof in 2019; septic pumped in 2022; new pressure tank for well in 2018, new light fixtures in 2023. The home has a nice sized open yard.

18. 2026-05-25
    listed $145,900 Active 695-char remark

    Show marketing remark (695 chars)

    Just in time for Summer! This 3 bedroom 2 bath ranch has open concept living, kitchen and dining with lots of natural sunlight, covered front porch, rear wood deck and a convenient wood shed. This home has deeded lake access to all 4 Sauble Lakes. The location is close to ORV Trail Systems, North Country Hiking Trail, 1000s of acres of public land and 100s of lakes, rivers and streams! The home updates include: vanity & toilet Bathroom 2021, living/dining room flooring in 2020, primary bath toilet in 2021, furnace & central air 2023, metal roof in 2019; septic pumped in 2022; new pressure tank for well in 2018, new light fixtures in 2023. The home has a nice sized open yard.

19. 2025-04-09
    historical
20. 2025-04-09
    historical
21. 2024-08-26
    price $130,000
22. 2024-08-24
    price $130,000
23. 2024-08-23
    price $130,000
24. 2024-08-06
    price $139,900
25. 2024-08-06
    price $139,900
26. 2024-08-06
    price $139,900
27. 2024-07-12
    price $144,900
28. 2024-07-12
    price $144,900
29. 2024-07-12
    price $144,900
30. 2024-06-14
    listed $149,900 Active
31. 2024-06-14
    listed $149,900 Active
32. 2015-01-24
    historical
33. 2015-01-24
    historical
34. 2014-09-15
    historical
35. 2014-09-10
    soldstatus $33,000
36. 2009-10-08
    historical
37. 2009-04-08
    listed $63,900
38. 2009-04-08
    listed $63,900
39. 2007-04-01
    listed $69,900
40. 2006-10-07
    soldstatus $45,000
41. 2005-12-06
    historical
42. 2005-09-15
    historical
43. 2004-08-10
    listed $55,000
44. 2004-08-10
    listed $55,000
45. 2004-08-10
    listed $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $520 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,334 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$814/yr (+$68/mo · 156.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,814
• − Property taxes: −$520
• − Insurance: −$698
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$4,058
• Taxable loss: −$1,493
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$358
• After-tax cash flow: $1,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,638
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #13447
• State rank: #618 of 760 in MI

Livability — Sauble

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,846

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.53%
• Current HPI: 236.7989
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+165.3% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $145,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-25 Listed $145,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-04-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-26 Price Changed $130,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-08-24 Price Changed $130,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $130,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $139,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $144,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $144,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $144,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2024-06-14 Listed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-06-14 Listed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-01-24 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2015-01-24 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2014-09-15 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2014-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 2009-10-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2009-04-08 Listed $63,900 REALCOMP
• 2009-04-08 Listed $63,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2007-04-01 Listed $69,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2006-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2005-09-15 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2004-08-10 Listed $55,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2004-08-10 Listed $55,000 REALCOMP
• 2004-08-10 Listed $55,000 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $520 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.