10578 Cross Fox Ln Unit E2

Columbia, MD 21044

$195,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 757 sqft · Built 1975 · Condo · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,045/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$317
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $9/mo
• Annual: $106/yr
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.19%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($106/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $192k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#51 in MD, #1,939 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Howard County Public Schools (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #1 of 24 in MD (top 4%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bryant Woods Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #297 of 860 statewide, top 38%, 361 students, 50% FRL); Wilde Lake Middle (math 11% / reading 43%, grade F, #81 of 225 statewide, top 38%, 611 students, 40% FRL); Wilde Lake High (math 36% / reading 63%, grade D, #108 of 222 statewide, top 49%, 1,341 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 15% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 150 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 881 units permitted in Howard County in 2024 (285 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Howard County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $195k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.