15020 Jefferson Ln

Oklahoma City, OK 73134

$269,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,981 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 262 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,137/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$475
• HOA: −$175
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-372/mo
• Annual: $-4,464/yr
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.93%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-372 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (24.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (20.5% below list).
• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#3 in OK, #1,635 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Edmond (suburban): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #11 of 270 in OK (top 4%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Angie Debo Es (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #255 of 845 statewide, top 35%, 579 students, 0% FRL); Santa Fe Hs (math 36% / reading 52%, grade F, #18 of 447 statewide, top 4%, 2,796 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 22% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 42 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,365 units permitted in Oklahoma County in 2024 (569 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oklahoma County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.7% in Oklahoma City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?