15020 Jefferson Ln · Oklahoma City, OK 73134

$269,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,981 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 262 Days on market

Built 2004 5,044 sqft lot Est $438k · 39% under $175/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful open floor plan in a gated community with a very large kitchen and center island that features seating for two and a second small oven and additional microwave. Large bar with seating for four. Beautiful landscaping. Backs up to thick grove of trees. Like new! Roof in 2022 along with many updates! Epoxy floors in the garage. See supplementals for all the updates. The $1680 HOA dues including mowing front and back, and multiple lawn treatments, indoor pool and clubhouse.

Key facts

• Rolling island
• Plentiful cabinetry
• Built in gas oven

Tags

• GATED GARDEN HOME NEIGHBORHOOD
• READY TO GO KITCHEN
• PLENTIFUL CABINETRY
• BUILT IN GAS OVEN
• ROLLING ISLAND
• BAR SEATING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Loan qualification available; Property is not assumable
• HOA & community: Mandatory association dues; Association fee includes common area maintenance, pool, and recreation facility

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; West-facing
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof (replaced/updated 2022); Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl fencing; Interior lot; No other exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas range and oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Disposal, Microwave, Refrigerator, Water heater; Tile flooring; Gas-log fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-372 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (24.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.7% in Oklahoma City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#3 in OK, #1,635 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Edmond (suburban): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #11 of 270 in OK (top 4%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Angie Debo Es (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #255 of 845 statewide, top 35%, 579 students, 0% FRL); Santa Fe Hs (math 36% / reading 52%, grade F, #18 of 447 statewide, top 4%, 2,796 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 22% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 42 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,365 units permitted in Oklahoma County in 2024 (569 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Oklahoma County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,283 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.93%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $437,801
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4108 NW 148th Ter	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,975 (-0%)	2mo	$255,000	$129	92
4217 NW 151st St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,806 (-9%)	6mo	$296,000	$164	72
4205 NW 155th St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,876 (-5%)	8mo	$325,000	$173	66
4233 NW 154th St	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,030 (+2%)	8mo	$335,000	$165	65
15908 Coneflower Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,950 (-2%)	5mo	$430,340	$221	59
16012 Coneflower Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,950 (-2%)	3mo	$435,340	$223	58
4228 NW 156th Ter	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,219 (+12%)	1mo	$379,000	$171	52
4208 NW 158th St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-9%)	3mo	$425,840	$237	51
4216 NW 158th St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,850 (-7%)	8mo	$422,340	$228	51
16020 Coneflower Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (-4%)	5mo	$418,840	$220	51
16020 Thistle Ter	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,000 (+1%)	7mo	$446,215	$223	51
16008 Coneflower Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,850 (-7%)	4mo	$414,340	$224	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.71% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $9,667
• Equity at exit: $116,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $80,771
• Equity at exit: $176,467

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73134

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$363 /mo · $4,352/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,608

Max offer price $203,283

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4100 NW 152nd St Edmond, OK	4.0	3.0	2519	$2,545	$1.01	2d	1	0.18mi
15316 Hill Branch Rd Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,849	$1.24	21d	1	0.24mi
4225 NW 155th St Edmond, OK	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,401	$1.03	24d	1	0.42mi
4201 W Memorial Rd Oklahoma City, OK	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$1,760	$1.81	14d	21	0.77mi
3308 NW 148th St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	3.0	1297	$1,650	$1.27	24d	1	0.89mi
3305 NW 149th St Oklahoma City, OK	4.0	2.5	1570	$1,775	$1.13	14d	1	0.90mi
3916 NW 164th St Edmond, OK	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1121	$2,235	$1.99	2d	12	0.95mi
3316 NW 159th St Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	12d	1	1.19mi
3925 NW 166th Ter Edmond, OK	3.0	3.0	2102	$5,000	$2.38	2d	1	1.19mi
13128 Green Valley Dr Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1968	$2,050	$1.04	24d	1	1.24mi
4045 Thunderbird Dr Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1968	$1,800	$0.91	24d	1	1.25mi
4916 NW 164th Ter Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,995	$1.24	16d	1	1.32mi
5108 NW 163rd St Edmond, OK	4.0	2.0	1624	$1,921	$1.18	2d	1	1.35mi
5300 W Memorial Rd Oklahoma City, OK	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1008	$1,435	$1.42	2d	24	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 262 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,000 Active 256 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,000 Active 255 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   remarks 695-char remark
6. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $269,000 Active 254 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $285,000 Active 250 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $285,000 Active 249 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $285,000 Active 248 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 247 DOM
11. 2026-04-28
    status Active
12. 2026-04-28
    price $285,000
13. 2026-03-13
    status Pending
14. 2026-02-09
    status Active
15. 2026-02-06
    historical
16. 2025-11-07
    price $299,000
17. 2025-10-21
    price $315,000
18. 2025-10-07
    price $320,000
19. 2025-08-06
    listed $325,000 Active
20. 2023-07-18
    soldstatus $315,000
21. 2023-07-13
    soldstatus $315,000 Closed 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Wonderful open floor plan in a gated community with a very large kitchen and center island that features seating for two and a second small oven and additional microwave. Large bar with seating for four. Beautiful landscaping. Backs up to thick grove of trees. Like new! Roof in 2022 along with many updates! Epoxy floors in the garage. See supplementals for all the updates. The $1680 HOA dues including mowing front and back, and multiple lawn treatments, indoor pool and clubhouse.

22. 2023-07-01
    status Pending 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Wonderful open floor plan in a gated community with a very large kitchen and center island that features seating for two and a second small oven and additional microwave. Large bar with seating for four. Beautiful landscaping. Backs up to thick grove of trees. Like new! Roof in 2022 along with many updates! Epoxy floors in the garage. See supplementals for all the updates. The $1680 HOA dues including mowing front and back, and multiple lawn treatments, indoor pool and clubhouse.

23. 2023-06-02
    listed $329,000 Active 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Wonderful open floor plan in a gated community with a very large kitchen and center island that features seating for two and a second small oven and additional microwave. Large bar with seating for four. Beautiful landscaping. Backs up to thick grove of trees. Like new! Roof in 2022 along with many updates! Epoxy floors in the garage. See supplementals for all the updates. The $1680 HOA dues including mowing front and back, and multiple lawn treatments, indoor pool and clubhouse.

24. 2022-03-24
    soldstatus $250,000
25. 2005-01-28
    soldstatus $205,990 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    NEW HOME IN OKC PREMIER GARDEN HOME ADDITON. COMMUNITY POOL AND NO YARD WORK! NEWHAVEN'S 'LIEGO' FLOORPLAN HAS IT ALL AND THIS ONE IS LOADED! ABSOLUTE HUGE KITCHEN COMPLETE W/ GRANITE COUNTERTOPS AND ISLAND OPEN TO LARGE LIVING AREA W/ BUILT-INS! CALL NICHOLE @ 826-6777.

26. 2004-08-12
    listed $205,990 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    NEW HOME IN OKC PREMIER GARDEN HOME ADDITON. COMMUNITY POOL AND NO YARD WORK! NEWHAVEN'S 'LIEGO' FLOORPLAN HAS IT ALL AND THIS ONE IS LOADED! ABSOLUTE HUGE KITCHEN COMPLETE W/ GRANITE COUNTERTOPS AND ISLAND OPEN TO LARGE LIVING AREA W/ BUILT-INS! CALL NICHOLE @ 826-6777.

27. 2004-08-02
    historical
28. 2004-03-30
    listed $215,372

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,352 · $363/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,352 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$4,352
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$9,147
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,195
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edmond
• NCES district ID: 4010590
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $73,212
• Composite: 35.88/100
• National rank: #4814
• State rank: #11 of 270 in OK

Livability — Oklahoma City

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1635

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oklahoma City, OK
• County: Oklahoma County · 771,644 people
• City population: 498,656
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 7,522
• Household income: $66,307
• Rent vs Own: 86.4% rent · 13.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 934.0

Population outlook (Oklahoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 911,875 people
• By 2030: 982,413 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,130,468 · +24.0%
• By 2050: 1,288,422 · +41.3%
• By 2075: 1,711,482 · +87.7%
• By 2100: 2,088,448 · +129.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Asian 7% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oklahoma

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.1pp toward D · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -1.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.7 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+10.5 2012: R+16.7 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.71%
• Current HPI: 219.5373
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+32.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Relisted — MLSOK
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $285,000 MLSOK
• 2026-03-13 Pending — MLSOK
• 2026-02-09 Relisted — MLSOK
• 2026-02-06 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $299,000 MLSOK
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $315,000 MLSOK
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $320,000 MLSOK
• 2025-08-06 Listed $325,000 MLSOK
• 2023-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-13 Sold (MLS) $315,000 MLSOK
• 2023-07-01 Pending — MLSOK
• 2023-06-02 Listed $329,000 MLSOK
• 2022-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2005-01-28 Sold (MLS) $205,990 MLSOK
• 2004-08-12 Listed $205,990 MLSOK
• 2004-08-02 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2004-03-30 Listed $215,372 MLSOK

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,352 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.